I've been following the crazy coaching carousel for the last few years now and it led me to thinking how much leeway should you give to a new coach at the NFL level? It may take a few years for coaches to develop and I wonder how many good coaches have not had the chance to develop and become great.
I know it's completely a result driven league but when I was looking at some of the older successful coaches I noticed that not all of them had great starts. Take Belichick of the Patriots for example:
91 Browns HC: Record 6-10
92 Browns HC: Record 7-9
93 Browns HC: 7-9
94 Browns HC: 11-5
95 Browns HC: 5-11 (after a 3-1 start)
Then he was fired as head coach when they moved to Baltimore to become the Ravens
After that he worked with the Patriots in 1996 and the Jets in 1997-99 as assistant coach to Parcells
2000 he became HC for the Patriots and his first season his record was 5-11
So in his first 6 seasons as a head coach he only had 1 winning season and a coaching record of 41-55.
It was only from 2001 onwards that he piled up all those winning seasons and championships and Super Bowl wins
So my question is given he had 5 losing seasons and only 1 winning season in his first 6 years (and his first 4 years were losing seasons) would he have made it as a coach in the NFL if he had that record in the last 5 years say as a new Head Coach?
In comparison look at Doug Pederson's Head Coaching record
2016 PHI HC 7-9 (4th NFC East)
2017 PHI HC 13-3 (1st NFC East and Super Bowl Champions)
2018 PHI HC 9-7 (2nd NFC East) - lost in NFC Divisional Round
2019 PHI HC 9-7 (1st NFC East) - lost in NFC Wild Card round
2020 PHI HC 4-11-1 (4th NFC East) Fired after the 2020 season with a record of 42-37-1 (4-2 playoff record) 61% winning record
In comparison you'd say that Pederson's record was much better than Belichick in his first 5 years (3 winning seasons to 2 losing) and yet he still got the axe quickly after that 2020 season
Personally I think that in some respects coaches are fired too quickly (and some not quickly enough! HaHa!) before they have a chance to develop into great coaches. Some may just need a bit of time. Anyone have any thoughts on this at all?
Would Belichick have lasted in the modern era of NFL Coaching?
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JPMoneyman
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MikeWest502
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Re: Would Belichick have lasted in the modern era of NFL Coaching?
If your talking about young Bill of yesteryear, I say no in today's football environment. Imo, it has more to do with appealing to fans and media now more than wins & loses for organizations in this era of pro football. Owners hate bad press. I'll start with QB's of now and then. During the 70's, 80's and 90's it was very rare for a team to draft a QB and start him as a rookie. Rookies were allowed to sit behind veteran QB's learn for a year or two, then get their opportunity. Aaron Rogers is a prime example.
96% of the QB's drafted need time to make the transition from college to pro. The competition and speed of the game is so much on a higher level than in college. Rare breeds like Elway and Marino were simply ready and impacted the league from day one. But guys like Manning and Aikman stunk during their first season and had to learn trial by fire. It paid off for them because they had great coaches working with them. But many, many others failed to make the transition even after sitting their first season or two. There's a huge list of QB's drafted number one or first round that where not capable on the pro level.
As for the coaches, back then they too were given a few seasons to develop, bring in their system, scheme and philosophies to build a winning team. GM's weren't so involved up front as they are to day. Coaches like Nick Saben and Pete Caroll, stunk early and got fired during their first NFL stints as HC's. But they moved on to the college arena, sharpen their knowledge and have been successful for a long time.
Pete came back to the NFL after rebuilding the USC program. We all know of his successes in Seattle. He's one of my favorites. Nick stayed in the NCAA and has become the Belichick of college football and probably the greatest head coach of NCAA football ever. Nick and Bill are BFF's. Also during Bill's cleveland run, Nick was his defensive coordinator. They have a documentary that's very interesting for any football fan who wants to get some history about them.
Today's coaches are not given the same opportunities of old due to so much media bad press and fan displeasure. Jim Caldwell was Detroit's winningest coach and they were a playoff team. Although they weren't at the top of the heap, they were there. But he got fired even with a 9-7 record. Shocked the hell out of me. I think he's the only coach ever to be fired that came off a winning season in the history of the NFL.
Oddly, Detroit's organization who hired Matt Patricia, gave Matt a few years to make Detroit better. But he simply couldn't do it. Most of now-a-days NFL organizations don't have the patience for that lack of success. And will move on when the first fire is set.
Bill is different IMO because he never needs the very best players to win. He knows how to take a mediocre player and help him improve. His player's develop a "team first" mentality. He's a great teacher. Not many other's are on his level. When Andy Reid drafted My-home-boy, he didn't just throw him into the fire. Patrick held a clipboard until the last game of the season. He came in and show the Broncos, there's a new sherrif in town. I'm a huge KC fan, watched that game live and many more times on tape.
Coaches like players need time to develop. Many of them are saddled with a team of mediocre players, bad work habits, and poor front office help, but are expected to turn things around immediately. And if not, they are shown the exit after only one or two seasons. Cleveland was on that carousel recently. The league is not the same as before. It took Andy Reid a couple of seasons to turn things around for KC. But unlike most team owners, KC knew it takes time. Their patience has paid off.
Another thing that matters is the players. Players of today are so different from years past. IMO there aren't many across the league who play for the prestige and love of the game. Media exposure, money and fan appeal have taken over, and not for the best.
Beat writers, fans and the media outlets can ruin a coach so fast these days its pathetic. Sadly, owners listen to that crap. That's why I don't watch any sports "talk" t.v or listen to any fan radio shows. They do more harm than good and are very biased. Any Joe-smoe can start his own podcast from mom's basement and rant away to discredit organizations and coaches based on how they feel with very little true insight of what goes on behind NFL closed doors.
So yeah, today's Bill would make it because his mindset is unique. He knows how to get the most out of his players right away. Back then, during his first stint, football was tougher and a whole different game. That moniker "DO YOUR JOB" phrased by Bill is used by many coaches around the league because it works. Bill is the G.O.A.T of all coaches.
Lastly, many coaches and coordinators aren't capable of being a HC in the first place.
96% of the QB's drafted need time to make the transition from college to pro. The competition and speed of the game is so much on a higher level than in college. Rare breeds like Elway and Marino were simply ready and impacted the league from day one. But guys like Manning and Aikman stunk during their first season and had to learn trial by fire. It paid off for them because they had great coaches working with them. But many, many others failed to make the transition even after sitting their first season or two. There's a huge list of QB's drafted number one or first round that where not capable on the pro level.
As for the coaches, back then they too were given a few seasons to develop, bring in their system, scheme and philosophies to build a winning team. GM's weren't so involved up front as they are to day. Coaches like Nick Saben and Pete Caroll, stunk early and got fired during their first NFL stints as HC's. But they moved on to the college arena, sharpen their knowledge and have been successful for a long time.
Pete came back to the NFL after rebuilding the USC program. We all know of his successes in Seattle. He's one of my favorites. Nick stayed in the NCAA and has become the Belichick of college football and probably the greatest head coach of NCAA football ever. Nick and Bill are BFF's. Also during Bill's cleveland run, Nick was his defensive coordinator. They have a documentary that's very interesting for any football fan who wants to get some history about them.
Today's coaches are not given the same opportunities of old due to so much media bad press and fan displeasure. Jim Caldwell was Detroit's winningest coach and they were a playoff team. Although they weren't at the top of the heap, they were there. But he got fired even with a 9-7 record. Shocked the hell out of me. I think he's the only coach ever to be fired that came off a winning season in the history of the NFL.
Oddly, Detroit's organization who hired Matt Patricia, gave Matt a few years to make Detroit better. But he simply couldn't do it. Most of now-a-days NFL organizations don't have the patience for that lack of success. And will move on when the first fire is set.
Bill is different IMO because he never needs the very best players to win. He knows how to take a mediocre player and help him improve. His player's develop a "team first" mentality. He's a great teacher. Not many other's are on his level. When Andy Reid drafted My-home-boy, he didn't just throw him into the fire. Patrick held a clipboard until the last game of the season. He came in and show the Broncos, there's a new sherrif in town. I'm a huge KC fan, watched that game live and many more times on tape.
Coaches like players need time to develop. Many of them are saddled with a team of mediocre players, bad work habits, and poor front office help, but are expected to turn things around immediately. And if not, they are shown the exit after only one or two seasons. Cleveland was on that carousel recently. The league is not the same as before. It took Andy Reid a couple of seasons to turn things around for KC. But unlike most team owners, KC knew it takes time. Their patience has paid off.
Another thing that matters is the players. Players of today are so different from years past. IMO there aren't many across the league who play for the prestige and love of the game. Media exposure, money and fan appeal have taken over, and not for the best.
Beat writers, fans and the media outlets can ruin a coach so fast these days its pathetic. Sadly, owners listen to that crap. That's why I don't watch any sports "talk" t.v or listen to any fan radio shows. They do more harm than good and are very biased. Any Joe-smoe can start his own podcast from mom's basement and rant away to discredit organizations and coaches based on how they feel with very little true insight of what goes on behind NFL closed doors.
So yeah, today's Bill would make it because his mindset is unique. He knows how to get the most out of his players right away. Back then, during his first stint, football was tougher and a whole different game. That moniker "DO YOUR JOB" phrased by Bill is used by many coaches around the league because it works. Bill is the G.O.A.T of all coaches.
Lastly, many coaches and coordinators aren't capable of being a HC in the first place.
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TheRareButter
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Re: Would Belichick have lasted in the modern era of NFL Coaching?
JPMoneyman wrote:I've been following the crazy coaching carousel for the last few years now and it led me to thinking how much leeway should you give to a new coach at the NFL level? It may take a few years for coaches to develop and I wonder how many good coaches have not had the chance to develop and become great.
I know it's completely a result driven league but when I was looking at some of the older successful coaches I noticed that not all of them had great starts. Take Belichick of the Patriots for example:
91 Browns HC: Record 6-10
92 Browns HC: Record 7-9
93 Browns HC: 7-9
94 Browns HC: 11-5
95 Browns HC: 5-11 (after a 3-1 start)
Then he was fired as head coach when they moved to Baltimore to become the Ravens
After that he worked with the Patriots in 1996 and the Jets in 1997-99 as assistant coach to Parcells
2000 he became HC for the Patriots and his first season his record was 5-11
So in his first 6 seasons as a head coach he only had 1 winning season and a coaching record of 41-55.
It was only from 2001 onwards that he piled up all those winning seasons and championships and Super Bowl wins
So my question is given he had 5 losing seasons and only 1 winning season in his first 6 years (and his first 4 years were losing seasons) would he have made it as a coach in the NFL if he had that record in the last 5 years say as a new Head Coach?
In comparison look at Doug Pederson's Head Coaching record
2016 PHI HC 7-9 (4th NFC East)
2017 PHI HC 13-3 (1st NFC East and Super Bowl Champions)
2018 PHI HC 9-7 (2nd NFC East) - lost in NFC Divisional Round
2019 PHI HC 9-7 (1st NFC East) - lost in NFC Wild Card round
2020 PHI HC 4-11-1 (4th NFC East) Fired after the 2020 season with a record of 42-37-1 (4-2 playoff record) 61% winning record
In comparison you'd say that Pederson's record was much better than Belichick in his first 5 years (3 winning seasons to 2 losing) and yet he still got the axe quickly after that 2020 season
Personally I think that in some respects coaches are fired too quickly (and some not quickly enough! HaHa!) before they have a chance to develop into great coaches. Some may just need a bit of time. Anyone have any thoughts on this at all?
When the team collapsed in 1995 it was due to the owner announcing that the Browns wouldn't exist next season, killed all the hope. Watch the 1995 Browns "A football life", it has some insight on how Bill Belichick operates. https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6pzhco
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MikeWest502
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Re: Would Belichick have lasted in the modern era of NFL Coaching?
TheRareButter wrote:JPMoneyman wrote:I've been following the crazy coaching carousel for the last few years now and it led me to thinking how much leeway should you give to a new coach at the NFL level? It may take a few years for coaches to develop and I wonder how many good coaches have not had the chance to develop and become great.
I know it's completely a result driven league but when I was looking at some of the older successful coaches I noticed that not all of them had great starts. Take Belichick of the Patriots for example:
91 Browns HC: Record 6-10
92 Browns HC: Record 7-9
93 Browns HC: 7-9
94 Browns HC: 11-5
95 Browns HC: 5-11 (after a 3-1 start)
Then he was fired as head coach when they moved to Baltimore to become the Ravens
After that he worked with the Patriots in 1996 and the Jets in 1997-99 as assistant coach to Parcells
2000 he became HC for the Patriots and his first season his record was 5-11
So in his first 6 seasons as a head coach he only had 1 winning season and a coaching record of 41-55.
It was only from 2001 onwards that he piled up all those winning seasons and championships and Super Bowl wins
So my question is given he had 5 losing seasons and only 1 winning season in his first 6 years (and his first 4 years were losing seasons) would he have made it as a coach in the NFL if he had that record in the last 5 years say as a new Head Coach?
In comparison look at Doug Pederson's Head Coaching record
2016 PHI HC 7-9 (4th NFC East)
2017 PHI HC 13-3 (1st NFC East and Super Bowl Champions)
2018 PHI HC 9-7 (2nd NFC East) - lost in NFC Divisional Round
2019 PHI HC 9-7 (1st NFC East) - lost in NFC Wild Card round
2020 PHI HC 4-11-1 (4th NFC East) Fired after the 2020 season with a record of 42-37-1 (4-2 playoff record) 61% winning record
In comparison you'd say that Pederson's record was much better than Belichick in his first 5 years (3 winning seasons to 2 losing) and yet he still got the axe quickly after that 2020 season
Personally I think that in some respects coaches are fired too quickly (and some not quickly enough! HaHa!) before they have a chance to develop into great coaches. Some may just need a bit of time. Anyone have any thoughts on this at all?
When the team collapsed in 1995 it was due to the owner announcing that the Browns wouldn't exist next season, killed all the hope. Watch this 1995 Browns "A football life", it has some insight on how Bill Belichick operates. https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6pzhco
I have watched that as well.
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JPMoneyman
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Re: Would Belichick have lasted in the modern era of NFL Coaching?
MikeWest
I agree that Belichick is a different kind of coach but given his HC start(results wise) could you really say his ability to engage his players is what kept him in the league those first few years? You can have pounds of potential but if it doesn't materialise?....
For me I agree Belichick is one of those special coaches that has an unbelievable ability to create winning teams and that matters so someone had to have seen that to keep him in the NFL until it became a reality. Interesting to note that he worked with a great coach early on like Bill Parcells with the New York Giants and then again with the Patriots and the Jets after losing the Cleveland job. So he too was another who went back and honed his craft to re-emerge as a coaching guru!
But even Bill needed some time to begin to shine!
For me I was just simply looking at his record and trying to compare it to other Coaches. And I think you are right, they are not given time to develop and often social media and ownership and the public really do influence their tenures in teams.
As a side note: I think Andy Reid was a different story really. I mean in Philadelphia his first season wasn't great (5-11 last in the NFC East) but after that in his 14 years there he had 9 winning seasons, only 3 losing and 2 8-8. 9 playoff runs, 6 Division titles, and 5 NFC Confrerence appearances with the 1 Super Bowl game (which he lost) His record was 130-93-1 and playoff record was 10-9.
Then at the Chiefs since 2013 he hasn't had a losing season and has won 6 AFC West titles consecutively. His team only missed the playoffs in 2014. His record is 103-42-0 and playoff record is 8-6 including Super Bowl LIV Champions in 2019. Relatively speaking while it took a couple of years to start winning the AFC I would probably consider making the playoff 2 times in his first 3 years quite successful so probably it wasn't hard for the organization to be patient with him.
All I mean to say is that he had the pedigree and results to back him up really.
For me I just wonder how many other good coaches are out there who if given a bit more time might be able to become half decent.
I agree Matt Patricia turned out to be not such a good hire. And Adam Gase is another of course!
John Harbaugh for the Ravens comes to mind as a coach who could have been let go. 2013-2017 were problematic -but they kept faith with him and before that he had a good record and he's back on track. He is a good coach (but also has a great record overall)
Mike Vrabel of the Titans is probably one of the few newer Coaches who have done pretty well but then he has had winning seasons in his 1st 4 years and went from 3rd in the AFC South to 2nd in the AFC South and then 1st in the AFC South in the 4 years he's been in charge and made the playoffs in 3 of his first 4 years.
There is Frank Reich as one of the latest that has been given a bit more of a chance and is proving to be a good coach despite this year's stumble. perhaps he might be an example of allowing a coach time to develop does work in the end?
Kyle Shanahan would probably be the one I'm thinking of that could be the biggest example for me. So I guess I'm looking at that situation to see what happens.
There's no doubt he's a pretty good coach but his record is only 49% wins. SF did look good destroying the Cowboys and it was said that it was to do with superior coaching, so interesting to see how his career goes from here.
Any others I'm not sure of especially since Matt Nagy just got fired recently
I agree that Belichick is a different kind of coach but given his HC start(results wise) could you really say his ability to engage his players is what kept him in the league those first few years? You can have pounds of potential but if it doesn't materialise?....
For me I agree Belichick is one of those special coaches that has an unbelievable ability to create winning teams and that matters so someone had to have seen that to keep him in the NFL until it became a reality. Interesting to note that he worked with a great coach early on like Bill Parcells with the New York Giants and then again with the Patriots and the Jets after losing the Cleveland job. So he too was another who went back and honed his craft to re-emerge as a coaching guru!
But even Bill needed some time to begin to shine!
For me I was just simply looking at his record and trying to compare it to other Coaches. And I think you are right, they are not given time to develop and often social media and ownership and the public really do influence their tenures in teams.
As a side note: I think Andy Reid was a different story really. I mean in Philadelphia his first season wasn't great (5-11 last in the NFC East) but after that in his 14 years there he had 9 winning seasons, only 3 losing and 2 8-8. 9 playoff runs, 6 Division titles, and 5 NFC Confrerence appearances with the 1 Super Bowl game (which he lost) His record was 130-93-1 and playoff record was 10-9.
Then at the Chiefs since 2013 he hasn't had a losing season and has won 6 AFC West titles consecutively. His team only missed the playoffs in 2014. His record is 103-42-0 and playoff record is 8-6 including Super Bowl LIV Champions in 2019. Relatively speaking while it took a couple of years to start winning the AFC I would probably consider making the playoff 2 times in his first 3 years quite successful so probably it wasn't hard for the organization to be patient with him.
All I mean to say is that he had the pedigree and results to back him up really.
For me I just wonder how many other good coaches are out there who if given a bit more time might be able to become half decent.
I agree Matt Patricia turned out to be not such a good hire. And Adam Gase is another of course!
John Harbaugh for the Ravens comes to mind as a coach who could have been let go. 2013-2017 were problematic -but they kept faith with him and before that he had a good record and he's back on track. He is a good coach (but also has a great record overall)
Mike Vrabel of the Titans is probably one of the few newer Coaches who have done pretty well but then he has had winning seasons in his 1st 4 years and went from 3rd in the AFC South to 2nd in the AFC South and then 1st in the AFC South in the 4 years he's been in charge and made the playoffs in 3 of his first 4 years.
There is Frank Reich as one of the latest that has been given a bit more of a chance and is proving to be a good coach despite this year's stumble. perhaps he might be an example of allowing a coach time to develop does work in the end?
Kyle Shanahan would probably be the one I'm thinking of that could be the biggest example for me. So I guess I'm looking at that situation to see what happens.
There's no doubt he's a pretty good coach but his record is only 49% wins. SF did look good destroying the Cowboys and it was said that it was to do with superior coaching, so interesting to see how his career goes from here.
Any others I'm not sure of especially since Matt Nagy just got fired recently
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MikeWest502
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Re: Would Belichick have lasted in the modern era of NFL Coaching?
JP, everything you stated is 100, I agree. For Reid, the AFC West was not as tough to conquer as the NFC East was during his tenure with the Eagles. When my Chiefs signed him, I knew better days were ahead. Alex Smith (Mr. Check Down) just wasn't that guy to lead us into the new era. We needed new blood. Andy recognized that, then went out and found a true gunslinger in Mahomes.
Sean McVay is another of those coaches who "get's it". One of my favorites. He is amazing. He know's football, the pulse of the players and one who takes calculated risks that payoff big time. He is another one of the younglings who really get the job done. I'm not a Rams fan as I used to be, but I'm happy for them. Today's teams are hiring younger coaches more now than ever. They want someone who relates to the players and not just a good X's and O's guy like McCarthy is.
Nagy had his chances, he'll probably be someones OC soon. He'll be remembered most as one of the guys who passed on Mahomes, oppting for a Drew Brees imposter, Tribisky. If Nagy had a better QB, the Bears would be a relevant team to talk about.
Bill had a great teacher in Parcells. It did take some time, but real success always does. I know the Patriots organization are glad they allowed the maturation process to take it's course with Bill. Tom Brady stated that Bill showed him the way. Tom said he models his work ethic and study from Bill and gives Bill the credit for the Patriots success as he deserves.
The Pat's are on solid ground with Bill.
Edit: I think what kept Bill around during his first stint in Cleveland was the owner's trust in him. When Bill interviewed with the Browns, he had a plan in writing to rebuild their organization to relevance that was unheard of and never seen back then. He came into Art's office with his handy-dandy notebook full of ideas and processes to rebuild the Browns organization. He was the youngest coach in the NFL at that time and brought innovation to practically every element of weekly preparation, scouting players, practicing, watching and diagnosing film for both his team and their opponents.
Bill was a study, the team did improve. The move to Baltimore changed everything. Every Brown's fan always asks the question "What if?" in regards to Bill and the move. Ozzie Newsome GM of the Raven's took 100% of what Bill taught him during his time in Cleveland to build the Ravens into the winning organizaion they came to be.
He's no Urban Meyer who'd physically or verbally abuse players. Biil knows how to talk to the players to encourage them to do better when they make mistakes.
Sean McVay is another of those coaches who "get's it". One of my favorites. He is amazing. He know's football, the pulse of the players and one who takes calculated risks that payoff big time. He is another one of the younglings who really get the job done. I'm not a Rams fan as I used to be, but I'm happy for them. Today's teams are hiring younger coaches more now than ever. They want someone who relates to the players and not just a good X's and O's guy like McCarthy is.
Nagy had his chances, he'll probably be someones OC soon. He'll be remembered most as one of the guys who passed on Mahomes, oppting for a Drew Brees imposter, Tribisky. If Nagy had a better QB, the Bears would be a relevant team to talk about.
Bill had a great teacher in Parcells. It did take some time, but real success always does. I know the Patriots organization are glad they allowed the maturation process to take it's course with Bill. Tom Brady stated that Bill showed him the way. Tom said he models his work ethic and study from Bill and gives Bill the credit for the Patriots success as he deserves.
The Pat's are on solid ground with Bill.
Edit: I think what kept Bill around during his first stint in Cleveland was the owner's trust in him. When Bill interviewed with the Browns, he had a plan in writing to rebuild their organization to relevance that was unheard of and never seen back then. He came into Art's office with his handy-dandy notebook full of ideas and processes to rebuild the Browns organization. He was the youngest coach in the NFL at that time and brought innovation to practically every element of weekly preparation, scouting players, practicing, watching and diagnosing film for both his team and their opponents.
Bill was a study, the team did improve. The move to Baltimore changed everything. Every Brown's fan always asks the question "What if?" in regards to Bill and the move. Ozzie Newsome GM of the Raven's took 100% of what Bill taught him during his time in Cleveland to build the Ravens into the winning organizaion they came to be.
He's no Urban Meyer who'd physically or verbally abuse players. Biil knows how to talk to the players to encourage them to do better when they make mistakes.
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