Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

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Drizzt_13
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Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

Postby Drizzt_13 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:59 pm

I've been working on progression formulas and I figured a major factor should be the players work ethic which would be effected by morale. This post will mostly be about obtaining an "effective work ethic" (EffWe) value for use in progression formulas that will come later. I am interpreting the values torontogruddlies added to the player databases which I found on his wiki. This may be a different interpretation then what he intended.

EffWE= Individual work ethic (IWe) weighted against the average of the effective work ethic for the team leaders based on character (TLAWe)
IWe= The average of work ethic and morale weighted with respect to emotion so that morale is weighted higher as emotion increases.

Work ethic is an inherent trait in the player's stat-line, and I will shortly give a formula to obtain morale but first let me make up some notation. The weighted average of factors x, y where y is weighed higher as z increases and x is weighted lower is abbreviated as WtdAvg[z](-x,+y). The plus sign means it is weighted higher as z increases.

The notation WtdAvg{a,b}(a~x,b~y) means that we have the weighted average of x and y where the weighting of a=x/x+y and the weighting of b=y/y+x. writing this equation out would give us (((x/x+y)*a)+(y/x+y)*b)/a+b.

Morale=WtdAvg{Lifestyle, Effective Family Value,Love of game, Love of team}(Lifestyle~Cash Flow,Effective Family Value~Years Left on Contract,Love of Game~Play Time, Loyalty~Love of Team)+WtdAvg[Ego](-Team win%,+Individual success)

Cash Flow: This will be a 1-100 rating which represents how much a player earns lines up with how much they should expect to earn. I haven't exactly worked out how to do that yet but since we need to have a function for this for contract signing anyway I though I'd include it here. This is more a representation of how happy they are with their contract
Effective Family Value= Absolute[2*(Family Value-50)]
Years Left on Contract= Years left*14.285

Basically this makes it so that players with a low family value play really hard in a contract year but slouch after getting a big contract and players with a high family value work really hard after getting a big contract but become distressed if their team doesn't sign them for an extension

Play Time=[((Games Played in-Games started)/2)+Games Started]/16

This determines what percentage of games the player started and played in last year. The idea is that if a player loves the game, then getting to play it is very important and they will be happy if they get to play a lot and unhappy if they play very little. If they don't care about the game and are just their for the paycheck playtime won't effect much.

Love of Team: Is the average of the players morale over past seasons with this team. This means it will not have a value the players first season with a team. At the end of each season we would need to take the final morale and average it in to the Love of Team. We don't need to store each seasons individual moral as long as we know how many seasons they've played for the same team, which madden must track somewhere. Loyalty decides how much this effects things because a loyal player expects teams to treat them with loyalty while a disloyal player wouldn't really care.

Team Win%= Obviously just the percentage of games a team has won.
Individual performance(IP)= I'll come up with some way of calculating individual performance based off of raw stats rather then rate states. Basically just make it linear and do something like 0=0yds rushing+recieving 100=2400yds rushing+recieving. So IP for RB's=(Yards Recieving+rushing)/24

Some Notes: I was considering adding a value that determined how much performance mattered to a player instead of just using 50% like I am currently. I think 50% works but I am open to adding another attribute which governs this if people think that should be done.

There will need to be some modifications done to this to make it work for inseason morale, mostly regarding things like win percentage which don't function well in small sample sizes. There is a lot of work still to be done on this and this is a really rough draft but I'm putting it for feedback and just so I can know if it's feasible and I should continue working in this vein.

P.S. If the notation is too confusing I can write it out in longer form or explain it again.

Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

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torontogrudlies
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Re: Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

Postby torontogrudlies » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:04 pm

What might be good: come up with three or four real NFL players whom everyone here will be likely to be familiar with, and show what their likely extended ratings would be and how these formulas would apply. Like, take a Brady/Manning/Rodgers, maybe throw in "bad boys" or people with criticisms.... like a T.O., Randy Moss, Chad Johnson. (or others to whom this stuff might apply.) It's difficult sometimes to just wrap one's head around a formula, but it would be easier if we could see how it works to emulate an actual personality.

Drizzt_13
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Re: Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

Postby Drizzt_13 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:59 pm

Ok will do

SO just filling in this equation

Morale=WtdAvg{Lifestyle, Effective Family Value,Love of game, Loyalty}(Lifestyle~Cash Flow,Effective Family Value~Years Left on Contract,Love of Game~Play Time, Loyalty~Love of Team)+WtdAvg[Ego](-Team win%,+Individual success)


let's take someone like larry fitzgerald
Lifestyle: 10
Family Value: 80
Years left on Contract: 6
Love of Game: 90
Playtime:100
Love of Team: 100
Ego:30
Loyalty: 90
Team Sucess:50
Individual Success: 95
Cash Flow: 99
Work Ethic: 90
Emotion:30
He would have a morale based on his situation of 94 because he desires a long term deal and has one, the cardinals have always treated him well and he loves the game of football and gets to play it. However he has an ego of 30, which means even though he has had great individual success the team coming in at 8-8 gives him a performance based morale of 63 (bear in mind 50 is supposed to be average though) Which brings his morale down to 78.77, which is still very much above average. However Larry has a high work ethic of 90 and is rarely effected in his play by the situation around him and so has an emotion of 30. This means his final work ethic still comes out to a high 86, 36 points higher then the league average of 50.


I started to work on Albert Haynesworth and realized the family value ratings don't quite work out like I intended, let me work on some stuff and get back to you.

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torontogrudlies
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Re: Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

Postby torontogrudlies » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:17 am

Ok cool! One note... rather than just factoring based on the team's win/loss percentage, we can go a little deeper. Our code is going to set the expectations for each team. If they were picked to win 4 games that year, the 8-8 would be very positive. But if they were predicted to go 14-2, then it would be negative.

Drizzt_13
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Re: Player Psychology as it Pertains to Progression

Postby Drizzt_13 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:07 pm

The goal of the family value rating as far as it pertains to progression was to use it as a measure of how important guaranteed long term stability is to the player. Above 50 means the player is most happy and motivated by having a long term contract, but is upset and feels ignored by the team if they don't give him a contract extension if he's only got one or two years left. Below 50 means the player slacks off if given a long term contract because there's no short term incentive to work, but in contract years they work much harder.

This means the equation for the variable previously represented by Years Left on Contract needs to be rewritten, I. The equation is as follows.

[((Years Left-1*25)-50)/50^1/2]*[(Family Value-50)/50^1/2]+50

The reason for using the square root of 50 even though it's a weird number is that then the maximum possible output of the formula is 100.

This way a player with a family value of 20 and 1 year left has a rating of (-7.07*-4.24)+50 which equals 80. Let's say then that next year the player does really well and receives a five year contract. Now he has a rating of (7.07*-4.24)+50 which equals a morale of 20. Then we use the number Absolute(Family Value-50)*2 to decide how heavily it should be weighted. This means that for family value 50 is 0 rather then average, and 75 and 25 are averages in both directions.

The one problem with the formula is the (Years left-1)*25, we'll need to have something which caps Years left at 5.

Do you want me to fill out the entire morale formula again for another player?


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