Impact of prior week's game

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torontogrudlies
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Impact of prior week's game

Postby torontogrudlies » Sat May 12, 2012 9:32 pm

The results of the previous game will affect a team's attitude, and especially that of individual players with high "Emotion" ratings. If they beat a much better team by 40 points, they'll be motivated... but probably even more motivated if the biggest lead was 10 points and the game was decided on the final play. This is the part I'm working on code for at the moment.

Here's some of the information my game code presently collects:

'Game.LeadChangesCount
'this function returns an array.
'0: # of lead changes
'1: # of ties
'2: 1=final scoring play broke tie, 2=final scoring play came from behind to win
'3: 1=score in final two minutes
'4: biggest lead (or deficit) by home team

I'd like to do a formula which computes how "exciting" the game was... how much of a positive or negative impact the game will have in this aspect. I guess that a win would always be a positive number, although in some cases a loss might have a positive impact (played hard against a much better team, came from huge deficit and almost beat them.) Anyone have any ideas? Kinda like the thread about assigning trade values to a player, but not as heavy.

Impact of prior week's game

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dawg317
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Re: Impact of prior week's game

Postby dawg317 » Sun May 13, 2012 8:37 am

I'm not really sure in reality how much a previous game impacts the current game. Sure it may build some confidence, but I think the previous game's results impact is minimal. The only time I see there being some impact is with winning and losing streaks. (losing streaks more so than winning streaks) I think there is more of an impact in sports that play on a more frequent basis (baseball, basketball, hockey).
"Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble." - John Madden

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Re: Impact of prior week's game

Postby Drizzt_13 » Sun May 13, 2012 1:44 pm

dawg317 wrote:I'm not really sure in reality how much a previous game impacts the current game. Sure it may build some confidence, but I think the previous game's results impact is minimal. The only time I see there being some impact is with winning and losing streaks. (losing streaks more so than winning streaks) I think there is more of an impact in sports that play on a more frequent basis (baseball, basketball, hockey).


Obviously the extent to which games effect each other varies a lot and hopefully that's something we would be able to account for. Right now this is simply a useful piece that will probably end up as part of a larger formula for calculating how player rating varies from week to week. Concerns about whether this will effect things too much are more useful once we have some idea about how it will change player ratings. I think I agree with you that most of the time it doesn't have a huge effect but it seems every year there is one or two teams that just gets on a bad streak and can't get out of it, the eagles this year and the cowboys the year before that. Ideally we don't have this sort of thing have a big impact except in rare instances.

@torontogrudlues
I think if you want to be able to calculate how exciting a game is you first have to have some sort of expectation of how the game is going to go to compare it to. A close loss might still have a positive impact if the opponent is heavily favored, or it might be killer if you were the favorite. I know as part of the GM stuff you initially talked about developing some sort of way for quickly calculating how a teams season should turn out, we could use that to predict how games are expected to run out, or just use the difference between team OVR.

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Re: Impact of prior week's game

Postby torontogrudlies » Sun May 13, 2012 3:57 pm

Drizzt_13 wrote:
dawg317 wrote:I'm not really sure in reality how much a previous game impacts the current game. Sure it may build some confidence, but I think the previous game's results impact is minimal. The only time I see there being some impact is with winning and losing streaks. (losing streaks more so than winning streaks) I think there is more of an impact in sports that play on a more frequent basis (baseball, basketball, hockey).


Obviously the extent to which games effect each other varies a lot and hopefully that's something we would be able to account for. Right now this is simply a useful piece that will probably end up as part of a larger formula for calculating how player rating varies from week to week. Concerns about whether this will effect things too much are more useful once we have some idea about how it will change player ratings. I think I agree with you that most of the time it doesn't have a huge effect but it seems every year there is one or two teams that just gets on a bad streak and can't get out of it, the eagles this year and the cowboys the year before that. Ideally we don't have this sort of thing have a big impact except in rare instances.

@torontogrudlues
I think if you want to be able to calculate how exciting a game is you first have to have some sort of expectation of how the game is going to go to compare it to. A close loss might still have a positive impact if the opponent is heavily favored, or it might be killer if you were the favorite. I know as part of the GM stuff you initially talked about developing some sort of way for quickly calculating how a teams season should turn out, we could use that to predict how games are expected to run out, or just use the difference between team OVR.


Yeah, I do have something which runs through and does a very basic guesstimate of how the season will go.... for something like this we would probably want to have something more detailed and "local"...meaning immediately leading up to the game, calculating how it's likely to unfold. Reason being, that team who was picked to go 13-3 gets decimated with injuries, now they're 6-6, so beating them isn't going to be as huge as if they were 10-2.

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Re: Impact of prior week's game

Postby torontogrudlies » Sun May 13, 2012 4:10 pm

dawg317 wrote:I'm not really sure in reality how much a previous game impacts the current game. Sure it may build some confidence, but I think the previous game's results impact is minimal. The only time I see there being some impact is with winning and losing streaks. (losing streaks more so than winning streaks) I think there is more of an impact in sports that play on a more frequent basis (baseball, basketball, hockey).


Yeah, I'm not thinking it would end up being a major impact (like several OVR points or anything like that.) Could affect how they practice, and also a frustrated team might be more apt to come unglued, backup players think they should be getting played, etc.

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Re: Impact of prior week's game

Postby dawg317 » Sun May 13, 2012 8:42 pm

Maybe it's just me but I want my backups thinking they should start. They will be more productive when in the game proving they should be the starter. I want my starters thinking that the backups are just as good as they are. I guess what I'm saying is that I want players that are going to do what it takes to get on the field and than do what is necessary to stay there.
"Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble." - John Madden

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Re: Impact of prior week's game

Postby torontogrudlies » Tue May 15, 2012 11:47 pm

dawg317 wrote:Maybe it's just me but I want my backups thinking they should start. They will be more productive when in the game proving they should be the starter. I want my starters thinking that the backups are just as good as they are. I guess what I'm saying is that I want players that are going to do what it takes to get on the field and than do what is necessary to stay there.


A little bit of what I was thinking: if two QBs are fairly close in rating, the backup will think that he should be starting, either on that team or elsewhere. If he has an agent, the agent could push for this too in the form of suggesting that his player wants to be traded. Also if the team is in a slump and the QB numbers aren't good, the coaching staff in the app will start asking you (wearing the head coach hat) if you want to give the backup more reps in practice. This can either light a fire under the starter, or give him a sour attitude.... and make him slightly less prepared in the form of a minor AWR drop.


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