Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

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Test 3 & Test 4 Conclusions: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Tue May 08, 2018 9:22 pm

So let's analyze both tests when the defense is Run biased, first of all the defense's formation on each snap.

With higher Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 65% of the team's defensive snaps, they used their Base Defense.
  • 35% of the team's defensive snaps were in any kind of subpackage, of which:
    • 16% of the total defensive snaps were in a Nickel set.
    • 11% of the total defensive snaps were in a Dime set.
    • 8% of the total defensive snaps were in a Quarter set.

With lower Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 59% of the team's defensive snaps, they used their Base Defense.
  • 41% of the team's defensive snaps were in any kind of subpackage, of which:
    • 21% of the total defensive snaps were in a Nickel set.
    • 9% of the total defensive snaps were in a Dime set.
    • 11% of the total defensive snaps were in a Quarter set.

I can conclude that, with higher Run defense, the team will prefer Subpackages with Lower Defensive Aggressiveness.

Next, the type of coverage the defense will use. With higher Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 68% of the team's defensive snaps, they used Man Coverage.
  • The remaining 32% was in Zone Coverage.

With lower Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 65% of the team's defensive snaps, they used Man Coverage.
  • The remaining 35% was in Zone Coverage.

I can conclude that, with higher Run defense, the team will prefer more Man Coverage regardless of Defensive Aggressiveness.

Finally, how many pass rushers will go for the QB. I will note that players in QB Contain will be counted as rushers for this count's purposes, as they aren't serving a coverage function, instead just delaying their rush until the QB is outside of the pocket. At the same time, I did not keep count of how many times the defense had 3 down linemen, but rushed 4 players. With higher Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 3% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush just 3 players.
  • In 70% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush 4 players.
  • In the remaining 27%, the defense will rush 5 or more players.

With lower Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 6% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush just 3 players.
  • In 68% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush 4 players.
  • In the remaining 26%, the defense will rush 5 or more players.

I can conclude that, with higher Pass defense, the team will prefer more players dropping back in coverage regardless of Defensive Aggressiveness.

This makes it harder to conclude on anything, so let's analyze each description:

jose21crisis wrote:See this chart? This chart determines what kind of Offensive and Defensive Scheme the coach will run. And the logic of it seems pretty simple.
moonbax wrote:West Coast & Contain Passing: (Run <50% / Off. Agg. ≥51)

Vertical Passing & Disrupt Passing: (Run <50% / Off. Agg. ≤50)

Ball Control & Force the Pass: (Run ≥50% / Off. Agg. ≥51)

Establish Run & Shut Down Runs: (Run ≥50% / Off. Agg. ≤50)


Notice that Contain Passing is associated with a Pass biased ratio, and a HIGH Offensive Aggressiveness. At least that's the way EA set it up. And Disrupt Passing is associated with a Pass biased ratio, and a LOW Offensive Aggressiveness. However, looking at my conclusions after tests 1 and 2:
jose21crisis wrote:With this I can conclude that:
  • A Pass Biased defense with High Defensive Aggression is, indeed, a "Disrupt Passing" defense.
  • Therefor, a Pass Biased defense with Low Defensive Aggression is a "Contain Passing" defense.

We can see that the Defensive Philosophy associated with a HIGH Offensive Aggressiveness, which is Contain Passing, is actually associated with a LOW Defensive Aggressiveness. On the same way, the Defensive Philosophy associated with LOW Offensive Aggressiveness, which is Disrupt Passing, is actually associated with a HIGH Defensive Aggressiveness.

If we apply this same logic to the Run biased Philosophies, we would have that:
  • Force the Pass is associated with a HIGH Offensive Aggressiveness. Which means that it is actually associated with a LOW Defensive Aggressiveness.
  • Shut Down Runs is associated with a LOW Offensive Aggressiveness. Which means that it is actually associated with a HIGH Defensive Aggressiveness.
And I can back this up with the descriptions I made about each of these philosophies:
  • Shut Down Runs: The team protects against the running game by calling upon their base defense to stop it, forcing the teams to go to the air to get any yardage.
  • Force The Pass: The team thinks their Defensive Backs are capable of covering the receivers without problem. This allows them to use 8 man fronts to take away the run and force the offense to go to the air.
These descriptions are what I could understand from NFL Head Coach 09, which has every philosophy that Madden 08 has, except that it has the Spread Offense. Anyway, you can see that "Shut Down Runs" calls for the team to use their base defense. Which they used, with a 65% of the snaps taken with base personnel. With all of this, I can conclude that:

  • A Run Biased defense with High Defensive Aggression is a "Shut Down Runs" defense.
  • Therefore, a Run Biased defense with Low Defensive Aggression is a "Force The Pass" defense.
Semper fi
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Always have a plan. And a backup plan. And backups to the backup.
And be able to improvise.

Test 3 & Test 4 Conclusions: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

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BUS36
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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby BUS36 » Wed May 09, 2018 10:37 pm

WOW...great breakdown... looks like someone did so coaching and breaking down of tapes..IMPRESSED...Understood that completely.
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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby jose21crisis » Thu May 10, 2018 11:09 pm

BUS36 wrote:WOW...great breakdown... looks like someone did so coaching and breaking down of tapes..IMPRESSED...Understood that completely.

Thanks for the comments BUS. I think the next i'll do is try to see what kind of coverage shells the CPU prefers at each setting, as to make a team more "Cover 3" heavy (the Seahawks come to mind), or another team more "Cover 2" heavy (the Cowboys come to mind here)
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Always have a plan. And a backup plan. And backups to the backup.
And be able to improvise.

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Project: Fixing movement speed

Postby jose21crisis » Fri May 11, 2018 4:45 pm

The defensive aggressiveness research will delay a bit because I wanted to check something. If you've seen my posts, you know that I hate the fact that players move too fast. Like, sub-4.00 40 times fast. This is a reason why many stuff goes wrong, like Punt Returns. So, my next experiment will be to get a formula to get Speed ratings based on real 40 times. The Set-up for the experiment will be this:

  • I'll take Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars, Offense Only so I can properly check his speed.
  • I'll execute a simply HB Dive, then line up at the 10 yard line, and start sprinting down field all the way to the 50. I'll record the time Fournette takes to reach the 50 yard line.
  • Since Madden doesn't have a way to measure the time a player takes to travel from point A to point B, I'll have to use a stopwatch to measure his time. For this reason, I'll do 5 tests per Speed setting.
  • I'll do 6 Speed settings:
    • 99
    • 90
    • 80
    • 70
    • 60
    • 50
    For a grand total of 30 tests.
  • I will calculate the average time it took for each Fournette to reach the 50 and try to figure out a formula.
Semper fi
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Always have a plan. And a backup plan. And backups to the backup.
And be able to improvise.

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Breaking down the Player Tendencies

Postby jose21crisis » Fri May 11, 2018 8:05 pm

So, while the correlation between 40 time and Speed, I had to edit Leonard Fournette's Speed, which I can do pretty easily in the in-game Madden Editor. The thing about this editor is that I can see the Player Tendency of that player. The most known Player Tendencies are for QBs: Scrambling, Pocket Passer and Balanced. But every player has a different Player Tendency that is determined by their own ratings. And it just happens that I can see what Player Tendency the player has assigned to him. So I decided to check what makes a QB be, say, a "Pocket Passer" QB, what makes a CB be a "Hard Hitting" CB or what makes a Kicker a "Power" Kicker.

Quarterbacks:
  • Pocket Passer: Triggered If Speed is 65 or lower, Agility is 60 or lower and Acceleration is 65 or lower.
  • Scrambling: Triggered if Speed is 70 or higher.
You can have a Scrambling QB that takes forever to reach top speed and can change directions like an 18 Wheeler, as long as his Speed is over 70. The Pocket Passer QB tendency does take into account Agility and Acceleration. The Balanced tendency triggers if none of the above tendencies are triggered, so if you have a 67 Speed, 50 Agility, 60 Acceleration QB, he would be balanced.

Halfbacks:
  • Speed: Triggered if Speed is 89 or lower and Break Tackle is 82 or lower.
  • Power: Triggered if Power is 88 or higher and Speed is 88 or lower.
The HB Player tendency doesn't take into account Agility or Acceleration, only Speed and Trucking (That's the modern name of Break Tackle). The Balanced tendency triggers if BOTH of the above or NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. So a 99 Speed, 99 Trucking Running Back would be balanced, as would be a 85 Speed, 75 Trucking HB

Fullbacks:
  • Receiving: Triggered if Catching is 65 or higher, Pass Blocking is 60 or lower and Run Blocking is 60 or lower.
  • Blocking: Triggered if Catching is lower than 60, Run Blocking is 55 or higher and Pass Blocking is 55 or higher.
The Balanced tendency triggers if BOTH of the above or NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. You probably don't use Fullbacks a lot, or probably use converted Run Blocking Tight Ends. I do use Fullbacks, so ... there you go.

Wide Receivers:
  • Possession: Triggered if Speed is 86 or lower, Acceleration is 90 or lower and Catching is 80 or higher.
  • Speed: Triggered if Speed is 90 or higher, Acceleration is 88 or higher, Catching is 75 or lower and Break Tackle is 50 or lower.
What the heck does Break Tackle have to do with a receiver being a Speed/Deep Threat receiver? No idea. The Balanced tendency triggers if BOTH of the above or NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. No idea what you would do with a receiver with less than 80 in Catching, but it is what it is.

Tight Ends:
  • Receiving: Triggered if Speed is 65 or higher, Catching is 70 or higher, Run Blocking is 60 or lower and Pass Blocking is 60 or lower.
  • Blocking: Triggered if Speed is 65 or lower, Catching is 60 or lower, Run Blocking is 60 or higher and Pass Blocking is 60 or higher.
The Balanced tendency triggers if BOTH of the above or NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. It will be rare to see a pure Blocking Tight End. Probably will only happen if you grab an Offensive Lineman and turn him a TE.

Offensive Linemen:
  • Pass Blocking: Triggered if Pass Blocking is 82 or higher and Run Blocking is 81 or lower.
  • Run Blocking: Triggered if Run Blocking is 85 or higher and Pass Blocking is 84 or lower.
The Balanced tendency triggers if BOTH of the above or NONE of the above tendencies are triggered.

Defensive Linemen:
  • Run Stopping: Triggered if Speed is 67 or lower, Strength is 77 or higher, Acceleration is 79 or lower and Tackling is 80 or higher.
  • Pass Rushing: Triggered if Speed is 70 or higher, Agility is 70 or higher and Acceleration is 80 or higher.
The Balanced tendency triggers if NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. A Pass Rushing D-Lineman seems to be easier to get than a Run Stopping D-Lineman.

Linebackers:
  • Coverage: Triggered if Speed is 76 or higher, Acceleration is 75 or higher and Agility is 70 or higher.
  • Run Stopping: Triggered if Strength is 75 or higher and Tackling is 85 or higher.
The Balanced tendency triggers if NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. The Coverage Linebacker Tendency is the highest priority if both tendencies are triggered.

Cornerbacks:
  • Coverage: Triggered if Speed is 90 or higher, Agility is 88 or higher and Acceleration is 90 or higher.
  • Hard Hitting: Triggered if Strength is 56 or higher.
The Balanced tendency triggers if NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. The Coverage Cornerback Tendency is the highest priority if both tendencies are triggered. Now, I don't know if EA actually did this one right. Why is Strength, and not Tackling, related to the Hard Hitting Cornerback tendency? Not sure. I guess the idea was so that these "Hard Hitting" Corners were actually "Press Coverage" Corners. That's my guess.

Safeties:
  • Coverage: Triggered if Speed is 85 or higher, Agility is 84 or higher, Acceleration is 84 or higher, Strength is lower than 61.
  • Hard Hitting: Triggered if Strength is 62 or higher, Tackling is 75 or higher, Speed is 87 or lower.
The Balanced tendency triggers if NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. The Coverage Safety Tendency is the highest priority if both tendencies are triggered. This one does look like they did it a bit better, as Tackling is involved.

Kickers and Punters:
  • Power: Triggered if Kick Power is 89 or higher.
  • Accurate: Triggered if Kick Accuracy is 85 or higher.
The Balanced tendency triggers if NONE of the above tendencies are triggered. Whichever stat is higher takes priority over the other if both tendencies are triggered. In case of both stats being the same, the priority goes for Power.
Semper fi
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Always have a plan. And a backup plan. And backups to the backup.
And be able to improvise.

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Speed rating and it's relation to 40 Times

Postby jose21crisis » Fri May 11, 2018 9:11 pm

So going back to Movement Speed post. I did the tests with Leonard Fournette (Who, in Madden 18 and, by extension, the 2017 Rogerjinx's V21 roster, has 91 Speed). As of note, he ran a 4.51 in the Combine, that is what we strike to achieve with this test. Also, remember that John Ross ran a 4.22. We can't go over 4.22 in any of the tests. It should be noted, I edited Fournette to have a 99 Acceleration rating for every test:

For 99 Speed the 40 times I got were:
  • 4.07
  • 4.15
  • 3.94
  • 4.03
  • 4.07
This averages a 4.05 40 Yard Time. Which I'm pretty darned sure no NFL player as of now can reach. And Fournette isn't that fast.

For 90 Speed the 40 times I got were:
  • 4.38
  • 4.35
  • 4.28
  • 4.33
  • 4.31
This averages a 4.33 40 Yard Time. This is a more realistic number, although there are very few players that got a 40 this fast. Guys like Chris Johnson or Darrius Heyward-Bey.

For 80 Speed the 40 times I got were:
  • 4.63
  • 4.60
  • 4.64
  • 4.68
  • 4.68
This averages a 4.65 40 Yard Time. And this is a 40 time more consistent with safeties than running backs, although it is not too far off.

I decided to stop the tests here because I though I had enough values to work with. I will use a Linear Function to make this work. The kind of function that looks like this
Y=MX+N


You can skip the next spoiler, as I'm just clarifying from where I got the formulas I'm using.

Spoiler:
Where Y is the 40 time, M is the linear slope, X is the Speed Rating and N is the value at which X is 0. So, we need to get M, to do that we get the 40 Times for both 90 Speed and 80 Speed (99 Speed with 90 Speed, and 99 Speed with 80 Speed also work). The value of M would be as follow:

Code: Select all

M = (Y2 - Y1)/(X2 - X1)

Again, Y2 and Y1 are 40 times, X2 and X1 are the Speed ratings. Replacing values:

Code: Select all

(4.33 - 4.65)/(90 - 80) = - (4/125)

This is our M value. Next up, we need N. To get that:

Code: Select all

Y - Y1 = M * (X - X1)

Once again, we replace values

Code: Select all

Y - 4.33 = (-4/125) * (X - 90)

We need to solve Y first, so we do that:

Code: Select all

Y = (3605 - 16X)/500

With this (And a handy Excel Spreadsheet) we can get a 40 Time based off a Speed Rating. This is situationally useful. But what would be more useful is inputting a 40 time and getting a Speed rating. So we get the inverse of this function:

Code: Select all

X = 5*(721 - 100Y)/16

This is truly useful. Again, we use Excel or OpenOffice or your preferred Spreadsheet software to use these formulas. Unless you are an actual math wizard.


So, with the formula we got which is:

Code: Select all

Speed Rating = 5*(721 - 100 * (40 Time))/16

With this we can get a more realistic Speed rating for players. We also have this formula:

Code: Select all

40 Time = (3605 - 16 * (Speed Rating))/500

In which we can input the Speed rating and it will give us a 40 time. Anyway, back to Fournette. Remember, he ran a 4.51 at the Combine and his Madden rating is a 91. If we got with his Madden Rating, we have that:

Code: Select all

91 Speed = 4.298s

I'd say that's a bit too fast for our purposes. We want him to run a 4.51, so we use that in the Speed Rating formula, we have that:

Code: Select all

4.51s = 84.375 Speed

Let's round this number to 84. So, to get Leonard Fournette to run a 4.51s 40, he would need to have a 84 Speed Rating (It would be a 4.52s, but the point stands)

Let's check with another player, John Ross. His Speed Rating is a 98, his 40 is a 4.22, using that in our formula, we have that:

Code: Select all

98 Speed = 4.074s

Too fast. Even for him that's too fast. Using the Speed Rating formula:

Code: Select all

4.22s = 93.4375 Speed

Rounding that, we get 93. To get John Ross to run the closest possible to a 4.22, his Speed Rating would have to be 93.
Semper fi
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Always have a plan. And a backup plan. And backups to the backup.
And be able to improvise.

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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby henshao » Sat May 12, 2018 3:55 am

You are looking in the wrong place my friends.

Players Accelerate Too Fast.

Of course a guy can run a 4.01 forty when he reaches his top speed in the first step

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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby henshao » Sun May 13, 2018 3:58 pm

Take a look at Olympic sprinter acceleration

Image
http://speedendurance.com/2008/08/22/us ... endurance/

At 40m these guys are still accelerating slightly, in madden top speeds even for ~85 acceleration are reached near instantly

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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby PatriotFan90 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:24 am

So, I'm kinda confused, and slightly perturbed now.

I had read the stuff by the person (trey31 IIRC); it basically said the only stats that make any real difference were speed, acceleration, awareness, stamina, and injury. Now, intuitively, this doesn't make sense, but I thought I'd give it a shot with my new Dolphins franchise. I started building the defense with this in mind, and now have about 50% of the defense done.

Now, I see this...

Ahhhhhhhhh!

What gives?

Before I read trey31's stuff, my plan was to have two HBs who are good for passing offenses (for example, Antonio Pittman and Lorenzo Booker), a HB who is basically an extra WR (I like to have a crap ton of receivers), and then two FBs. One FB would be an H-back type of player, and one would be a power runner with high strength and break tackle for power running situations.

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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby jose21crisis » Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:53 pm

PatriotFan90 wrote:So, I'm kinda confused, and slightly perturbed now.

I had read the stuff by the person (trey31 IIRC); it basically said the only stats that make any real difference were speed, acceleration, awareness, stamina, and injury. Now, intuitively, this doesn't make sense, but I thought I'd give it a shot with my new Dolphins franchise. I started building the defense with this in mind, and now have about 50% of the defense done.

Now, I see this...

Ahhhhhhhhh!

What gives?

Before I read trey31's stuff, my plan was to have two HBs who are good for passing offenses (for example, Antonio Pittman and Lorenzo Booker), a HB who is basically an extra WR (I like to have a crap ton of receivers), and then two FBs. One FB would be an H-back type of player, and one would be a power runner with high strength and break tackle for power running situations.

Yeah, I also read trey31's research. I don't entirely feel it is true on every aspect. Trey's post partially inspired this whole series, and it inspired the "How Awareness impacts Man Coverage" post as well. I would still recommend you get that power running FB with high Break Tackle and high Strength if possible. And make sure he is a big guy as well. Testing shows they consistently fall forward and prefer Trucking animations as opposed to elusive animations.
Semper fi
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Always have a plan. And a backup plan. And backups to the backup.
And be able to improvise.


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