Long Bombs and the reason they happen
Posted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:59 pm
While watching a CPU vs. CPU game, Seahawks vs. Lions, the Lions were on top, 26-13. During the 4th Quarter, the Seahawks took possession and Russell Wilson found Doug Baldwin on a Streak for an 81 yard TD on the 1st play. I didn't play too much attention to it and figured it was luck. On their next possession, the EXACT SAME happened. Wilson, Baldwin, Streak, TD. They ended up losing 27-26. Anyway, after seeing THAT second TD, I figured that something must be wrong. How is that you let a streak route beat you twice?
Here are the sliders I use:
And let me tell you that they might have nothing to do with that. I saw the replay of the play, and I saw what the defenders did. The Lions did the smart thing, Cover 2 Man, two safeties over the top to cover streaks and flag routes. They are supposed to not let anyone get behind them. Well ... let's say that Mr. Baldwin did get behind the Free Safety, and shed a tackle while at it.
Now, I have 2 theories about this. The first, the EA reason, is that the defender only seems to react to the receiver when they enter their zone and they are close enough. When they go from the "passive" mode (Wait until someone triggers the defender) to "Active" mode (Follow that guy through and out of the zone) by the time the defender turns around and starts accelerating, the receiver, already at top speed, just runs by him and the QB can send a bomb over the defenders head.
The second theory is actually the realistic reason. Ready for it?
QB Vision™
In the real game, defenders in zone coverage try to look at the Quarterback and follow his motions and where he is looking to see where he is going to throw the ball. You might remember that Ed Reed excelled at this, and he has the record for the longest pick six, as well as the runner up. That allows them to adjust to the receiver most likely to receive the pass that is in their zone. Naturally, this can backfire if the QB is smart enough to "look off" the defender, but the point stands. Now, the problem starts when there is no QB Vision. What are the defenders reacting to? They are just reacting at the receivers moving around, instead of the QB's motions and sight. Since to them, every receiver has the exact same chance of getting the touch as each other, they don't instantly react to them. That is until they actually get close enough (Or got the Defensive Spotlight, but that's other issue). So, unable to follow one of the keys of zone coverage, this could result in blown coverage, because the defender didn't knew that streaking Tight End or Wide Receiver could actually be getting the touch and watches him until he gets close.
That's my theory. I don't think it is related to the offense, I think is related to the Defense letting the Offense go deep.
Here are the sliders I use:
Code: Select all
Madden NFL 08 PC v0.0 Game Log - Seahawks at Lions
Game Time: Sat Mar 10 21:59:55 2018
Skill Level: All Pro
Quarter Length: 15 minute(s)
Slider Human CPU
QB Accuracy 65 65
Pass Blocking 40 40
Receiver Catching 50 50
Running Ability 50 50
Offensive line Run Blocking 17 17
Defensive Awareness 40 40
Defensive line Knockdowns 5 5
Interceptions 1 1
Defensive Break Blocks 10 10
Tackling 40 40
Fieldgoal Length 55 55
Fieldgoal Accuracy 99 99
Punt Length 46 46
Punt Accuracy 99 99
Kickoff Length 48 48
Weather
Forecast: Fair
Wind: 0 mph
Temp: 79 degrees
Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT FINAL
Seahawks 3 3 7 13 0 26
Lions 3 10 6 8 0 27
Game Statistics: Seahawks Lions
First Downs 23 17
Third Down Conversions 6 8
Third Downs 13 19
Third Down Percentage 46.2% 42.1%
Fourth Down Conversions 0 0
Fourth Downs 1 0
Fourth Down Percentage 0.0% 0.0%
Two Pt Conversions Made 1 0
Two Pt Conversions Attempted 1 0
Two Pt Conversion Percentage 100.0% 0.0%
Offense Redzone Num 2 5
Offense Redzone TDs 0 0
Offense Redzone FGs 1 3
Offense Redzone Percentage 50.0% 60.0%
Rushing Attempts 21 31
Rushing Yards 71 23
Rushing Average 3.4 0.7
Rushing TDs 0 0
Passing Yards 471 441
Passing Completions 30 26
Passing Attempts 48 42
Completion Percentage 62.5% 61.9%
Passing Average 9.8 10.5
Passing TDs 3 1
Offensive Pass Interceptions 3 1
TOTAL OFFENSE 542 464
Defensive Pass Interceptions 1 3
Punt Return Yards 9 0
Kick Return Yards 109 55
Punts 3 4
Punt Avg 47.7 37.5
Fumbles 1 0
Fumbles Lost 0 0
Penalties 5 3
Penalty Yds 58 25
Turnovers 3 1
TIME OF POSSESSION 30:16 29:42
Individual Stats: Lions
PASSING CMP ATT YDS PCT YPA SACK TD INT LONG RATING
Matthew Stafford 12 19 235 63 12.3 0 1 1 93 101.8
Nick Foles 14 23 218 60 9.4 2 0 0 57 92.3
RUSHING ATT YDS AVG LONG TD FUM
Akrum Wadley 15 20 1.3 8 0 0
Darren Fells 2 3 1.5 2 0 0
Nick Foles 2 0 0.0 1 0 0
Theo Riddick 12 0 0.0 5 0 0
RECEIVING REC YDS AVG LONG TD DROP YAC
Golden Tate 7 213 30.4 93 1 0 93
Devonte Boyd 5 79 15.7 33 0 1 2
Kenny Golladay 4 78 19.5 52 0 0 10
Michael Roberts 3 38 12.6 30 0 0 12
Akrum Wadley 2 14 7.0 14 0 0 9
Jordan Matthews 2 13 6.5 14 0 1 4
Nick O'Leary 2 10 5.0 8 0 0 0
Theo Riddick 1 8 8.0 8 0 0 1
KICKING FGM FGA PCT FGSBLOCKED XPA XPM PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Matt Prater 6 6 100 0 1 1 100 0 3 2
Kasey Redfern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
PUNTING ATT YDS AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Kasey Redfern 4 150 37.5 44 0 0 0
KICK RETURNS ATT YDS AVG TD LONG
Theo Riddick 2 42 21.0 0 24
Golden Tate 1 13 13.0 0 13
PUNT RETURNS ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Golden Tate 0 0 0.0 0 0
Theo Riddick 0 0 0.0 0 0
DEFENSE TOT LOSS SACK FF FREC YDS TD INT RET AVG DEFLECTIONS SAFETIES CTH ALLOW BIG HITS
Jarrad Davis 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Teez Tabor 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 8 0
Tahir Whitehead 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Darius Slay 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 0 5 0
Bruce Carter 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 2 0 0 0
Anthony Averett 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 0 4 0
Quandre Diggs 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.0 2 0 5 0
Ziggy Ansah 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2.0 1 0 0 0
A'Shawn Robinson 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Anthony Zettel 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Miles Killebrew 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 0 1 0
Jeremiah Valoaga 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Glover Quin 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 10.0 1 0 2 0
Steve Longa 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Charles Washington 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jordan Matthews 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Haloti Ngata 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Tavon Wilson 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 0 1 0
BLOCKING PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Ricky Wagner 6 1
Darren Fells 3 0
T. J. Lang 3 0
Taylor Decker 3 0
Kevin Pendleton 1 0
Michael Roberts 1 0
Graham Glasgow 1 0
Devonte Boyd 1 0
Ziggy Ansah 1 0
Tim Lelito 0 1
Individual Stats: Seahawks
PASSING CMP ATT YDS PCT YPA SACK TD INT LONG RATING
Will Grier 16 29 344 55 11.8 4 3 2 84 103.2
Russell Wilson 14 19 145 73 7.6 1 0 1 30 73.4
RUSHING ATT YDS AVG LONG TD FUM
Thomas Rawls 10 31 3.0 16 0 0
Russell Wilson 3 19 6.3 11 0 0
Eddie Lacy 7 19 2.7 8 0 0
Nick Vannett 1 2 2.0 2 0 0
RECEIVING REC YDS AVG LONG TD DROP YAC
Tyler Lockett 7 178 25.4 58 2 1 118
Doug Baldwin 10 169 16.8 84 1 0 86
Tanner McEvoy 7 85 12.1 17 0 0 16
Jimmy Graham 2 29 14.5 20 0 0 0
Thomas Rawls 2 16 8.0 15 0 0 10
Amara Darboh 2 12 6.0 11 0 1 0
KICKING FGM FGA PCT FGSBLOCKED XPA XPM PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Andrew Franks 2 3 66 0 2 2 100 0 4 2
Blair Walsh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
PUNTING ATT YDS AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Jon Ryan 3 143 47.6 50 0 2 0
KICK RETURNS ATT YDS AVG TD LONG
Tyler Lockett 1 22 22.0 0 22
Earl Thomas III 4 87 21.7 0 27
PUNT RETURNS ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Earl Thomas III 2 9 4.5 8 0
Tyler Lockett 0 0 0.0 0 0
DEFENSE TOT LOSS SACK FF FREC YDS TD INT RET AVG DEFLECTIONS SAFETIES CTH ALLOW BIG HITS
Bryce Callahan 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 3 0
Michael Bennett 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kam Chancellor 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 2 0
Bobby Wagner 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Brad McDougald 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 0 1 0
Frank Clark 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Earl Thomas III 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Marcus Smith II 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Shaquill Griffin 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 4 0
D. J. Alexander 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Josh Bynes 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Sheldon Richardson 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Tre' Williams 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Jarran Reed 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Rasheem Green 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
K. J. Wright 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Tyrell Crosby 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Doug Baldwin 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Richard Sherman 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Luke Joeckel 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Phillip Gaines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.0 3 0 2 0
BLOCKING PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Tyrell Crosby 7 0
Jimmy Graham 4 0
Germain Ifedi 4 0
Luke Joeckel 3 0
Evan Smith 3 0
Thomas Rawls 1 0
Tanner McEvoy 1 0
Beau Benzschawel 0 1
Ethan Pocic 0 1
Troy Fumagalli 0 1
Game Log Ends
------------------------------------------------------------
And let me tell you that they might have nothing to do with that. I saw the replay of the play, and I saw what the defenders did. The Lions did the smart thing, Cover 2 Man, two safeties over the top to cover streaks and flag routes. They are supposed to not let anyone get behind them. Well ... let's say that Mr. Baldwin did get behind the Free Safety, and shed a tackle while at it.
Now, I have 2 theories about this. The first, the EA reason, is that the defender only seems to react to the receiver when they enter their zone and they are close enough. When they go from the "passive" mode (Wait until someone triggers the defender) to "Active" mode (Follow that guy through and out of the zone) by the time the defender turns around and starts accelerating, the receiver, already at top speed, just runs by him and the QB can send a bomb over the defenders head.
The second theory is actually the realistic reason. Ready for it?
QB Vision™
In the real game, defenders in zone coverage try to look at the Quarterback and follow his motions and where he is looking to see where he is going to throw the ball. You might remember that Ed Reed excelled at this, and he has the record for the longest pick six, as well as the runner up. That allows them to adjust to the receiver most likely to receive the pass that is in their zone. Naturally, this can backfire if the QB is smart enough to "look off" the defender, but the point stands. Now, the problem starts when there is no QB Vision. What are the defenders reacting to? They are just reacting at the receivers moving around, instead of the QB's motions and sight. Since to them, every receiver has the exact same chance of getting the touch as each other, they don't instantly react to them. That is until they actually get close enough (Or got the Defensive Spotlight, but that's other issue). So, unable to follow one of the keys of zone coverage, this could result in blown coverage, because the defender didn't knew that streaking Tight End or Wide Receiver could actually be getting the touch and watches him until he gets close.
That's my theory. I don't think it is related to the offense, I think is related to the Defense letting the Offense go deep.