2016-17 NFL Run/Pass% Adjusted Upward for Realistic Madden Ratios

Sliders, settings and other adjustments to make the game more realistic.
moonbax
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2016-17 NFL Run/Pass% Adjusted Upward for Realistic Madden Ratios

Postby moonbax » Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:00 pm

These are the current (11/28) NFL Run/Pass Ratios, sorted from least rushes (highest Pass%) to greatest:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-rushing-play-percentage/2016/ wrote:
Spoiler:
32 Green Bay Packers 221 638 34.64% (65% Pass)
31 Cleveland Browns 245 688 35.61% (64% Pass)
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 252 693 36.36% (64% Pass)
29 Baltimore Ravens 267 719 37.13% (63% Pass)
28 Chicago Bears 241 647 37.25% (63% Pass)
25 Arizona Cardinals 280 738 37.94% (62% Pass)
26 Pittsburgh Steelers 258 680 37.94% (62% Pass)
27 Detroit Lions 239 630 37.94% (62% Pass)
24 New York Giants 254 667 38.08% (62% Pass)
23 Washington Redskins 275 713 38.57% (61% Pass)
22 New Orleans Saints 290 747 38.82% (61% Pass)
21 Indianapolis Colts 268 680 39.41% (61% Pass)
20 Kansas City Chiefs 267 669 39.91% (60% Pass)
19 Oakland Raiders 288 712 40.45% (60% Pass)
18 Seattle Seahawks 266 646 41.18% (59% Pass)
17 Cincinnati Bengals 290 698 41.55% (58% Pass)
16 San Diego Chargers 286 687 41.63% (58% Pass)
15 Los Angeles Rams 271 647 41.89% (58% Pass)
14 Minnesota Vikings 275 656 41.92% (58% Pass)
13 Atlanta Falcons 279 659 42.34% (58% Pass)
12 New York Jets 282 660 42.73% (57% Pass)
11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 322 739 43.57% (56% Pass)
10 Philadelphia Eagles 277 634 43.69% (56% Pass)
9 Houston Texans 311 711 43.74% (56% Pass)
8 Carolina Panthers 306 697 43.90% (56% Pass)
7 Denver Broncos 302 686 44.02% (56% Pass)
6 Miami Dolphins 270 600 45.00% (55% Pass)
5 New England Patriots 319 690 46.23% (54% Pass)
4 San Francisco 49ers 317 675 46.96% (53% Pass)
3 Tennessee Titans 356 736 48.37% (52% Pass)
2 Buffalo Bills 327 646 50.62% (49% Pass)
1 Dallas Cowboys 363 705 51.49% (48% Pass)


However, everything about Madden 08's live HUM/CPU games (or CPU/CPU "slow"-sims) has demonstrated to me that you can't simply translate these values directly into the Run/Pass% values chosen for each of your NFL coach's sliders. Since I have been using all Run/Pass% values between Pass 60% and Pass 69% I have seen remarkably consistent results in M08 games:

* All trials have resulted in overall Pass% values (after 60:00) of 50% to 59%, almost exactly a differential of -10 from the entered Run/Pass values.

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=18210&start=120#p87499, viewtopic.php?f=18&t=18210&start=120#p88970, viewtopic.php?f=18&t=18210&start=120#p89027
* 163 plays including OT (59% Pass 41% Rush overall) [Game played between high pass coaches ("68%/69% Pass")]
153 plays (53% Pass 47% Rush)
70/142 plays (49%) Run, 72/142 plays (51%) Pass [Game played between "60% Pass" coaches with varying rain intensity]
Rushing Attempts 34 35 Passing Attempts 43 41 [55% Pass]
Rushing Attempts 43 24 Passing Attempts 35 59 [58% Pass; Game played between one "60% Pass" and one "68% Pass" coach]


* In addition, all fast-sims show accurate ratios of Rushing to Passing yardage as well, which I compared using varying ratios with the Bills, Seahawks, Panthers, and Vikings over in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=18622#p82445
Bills, Panthers, Vikings, Seahawks - 40% Run / Pass 60%
Image

*Everyone is right on the money with 2,400 rushing as the cap.
*All of these teams are near or over 3,000 passing.


* At over 69% Pass many offenses begin to show anemic seasonal rushing totals in fast-sims, with multiple teams of <80.0 yd/game averages.


Therefore, I prefer to use a "scaled" system where the more run-heavy coaches are given more of an adjustment than the pass-heavy coaches. If I were to attempt to scale the "real" values seen above to my ideal coach slider settings of 60-69% Pass, this is what I end up with:


69% Pass - Mike McCarthy (+4), Hue Jackson (+5), Gus Bradley (+5), John Harbaugh (+6), John Fox (+6)
68% Pass - Bruce Arians (+6), Mike Tomlin (+6), Jim Caldwell (+6), Ben McAdoo (+6)
67% Pass - Jay Gruden (+6), Sean Payton (+6), Chuck Pagano (+6)
66% Pass - Andy Reid (+6), Jack Del Rio (+6), Pete Carroll (+7)
65% Pass - Marvin Lewis (+7), Mike McCoy (+7), Jeff Fisher (+7), Mike Zimmer (+7), Dan Quinn (+7)
64% Pass - Todd Bowles (+7)
63% Pass - Dirk Koetter (+7), Doug Pederson (+7), Bill O'Brien (+7), Ron Rivera (+7), Gary Kubiak (+7)
62% Pass - Adam Gase (+7), Bill Belichick (+8)
61% Pass - Chip Kelly (+8), Mike Mularkey (+9)
60% Pass - Rex Ryan (+11), Jason Garrett (+12)

2016-17 NFL Run/Pass% Adjusted Upward for Realistic Madden Ratios

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moonbax
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Re: 2016-17 NFL Run/Pass% Adjusted Upward for Realistic Madden Ratios

Postby moonbax » Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:16 am

If you try to describe this amount of scaling upward that I used as an example where the range ends up around 60-69% Pass, notice that inputting Pass 48% --> (gives) Pass 60%, and Pass 63% --> Pass 69%. If you only look at values close to this range of 48-63 for P, the linear slope ends up being a relatively neat 0.6 (9 up/15 across). Then simply solving for the new P'=60 (new Pass%) at P=48 (old Pass%) gives:

P' = 0.6 * P + 31
(Rounding 31.2 to 31 gives P'(64% Pass) = 69% Pass, so I truncated the .2)

Therefore all values in this range would give:

P'(65) =            70% Pass - Mike McCarthy(+5) [***or you could cap them at 69***]
P'(64) = P'(63) = 69% Pass - Hue Jackson(+5), Gus Bradley(+5), John Harbaugh(+6), John Fox(+6)
P'(62) = P'(61) = 68% Pass - Bruce Arians(+6), Mike Tomlin(+6), Jim Caldwell(+6), Ben McAdoo(+6), Jay Gruden(+7), Sean Payton(+7), Chuck Pagano(+7)
P'(60) =            67% Pass - Andy Reid(+7), Jack Del Rio(+7)
P'(59) = P'(58) = 66% Pass - Pete Carroll(+7), Marvin Lewis(+8), Mike McCoy(+8), Jeff Fisher(+8), Mike Zimmer(+8), Dan Quinn(+8)
P'(57) = P'(56) = 65% Pass - Todd Bowles(+8), Dirk Koetter(+9), Doug Pederson(+9), Bill O'Brien(+9), Ron Rivera(+9), Gary Kubiak(+9)
P'(55) =            64% Pass - Adam Gase(+9)
P'(54) = P'(53) = 63% Pass - Bill Belichick(+9), Chip Kelly(+10)
P'(52) =            62% Pass - Mike Mularkey(+10)
P'(49) = P'(48) = 60% Pass - Rex Ryan(+11), Jason Garrett(+12)


That's assuming a linear scaling, of course.

EDIT, Interestingly, if you continue this trend you get:

...
P'(33) = 51% Pass - [NCAA coaches]
P'(32) = 50% Pass - [NCAA coaches]


I have known the game to give some pretty ridiculous run/pass values at these settings in the neighborhood of 33% Pass.

Bovell
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Re: 2016-17 NFL Run/Pass% Adjusted Upward for Realistic Madden Ratios

Postby Bovell » Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:50 pm

Awesome work! The adjustment scaling is a clever way of implementing this change. I've only played around with these adjustments a little bit, but there is a discernible improvement in the playcalling and gameflow.

One question: I don't know much about how the coach system works in Madden 08, but what effect would changing Offensive Coordinator/Defensive Coordinator values have? Do they only take effect if those individuals become Head Coaches?

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BUS36
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Re: 2016-17 NFL Run/Pass% Adjusted Upward for Realistic Madden Ratios

Postby BUS36 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:27 am

this rating goes out the window with the Steelers and LeVeon Bell. They are almost more like 55% Pass 45% Run over the last 6 games
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