Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Sliders, settings and other adjustments to make the game more realistic.
moonbax
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Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:30 pm

I have been seeing a difference in the type of substitution packages used as I adjust the Defensive Pass/Run % slider. The focus of this was to test a few different values that were approximately equidistant from each other, and see if I can find a definite pattern emerging in preferred subpackage use.

For this one I tried one 4-3 defense (Vikes) and one 3-4 defense (Titans). I wanted to see how the amount of 4-2-5 nickel and 3-3-5 nickel changed for the Vikes, and how the amount of 2-4-5 nickel and 3-3-5 nickel changed for the Titans. I also wanted to see if there was a preference for Dime or Quarter. The results that were obtained on the formations was interesting, but even more interesting was a possible major correlation between how GOOD the defense is at either stopping the run or the pass, and what slider setting is used. I may have discovered that pushing this slider too far toward higher Run % or higher Pass % might produce substandard gameplay all around.


I have both offenses and defenses set to the same aggression, but of course I gave Zimmer (Vikes) a 4-3 book, MIN, and Mularkey (Titans) a 3-4 book, SD. I ran five slow-sims for 15:00 game time in clear weather conditions, using the same Defensive Pass/Run% setting for both teams, a unique setting in each trial. The results as copied from notes are as follows:


Trial 1 - Vikes 79% Run defense, Titans 79% Pass defense
*Vikes: 4-2-5 nickel; 4-1-6 and 3-2-6 dime observed, no quarter observed; I also noted a lot of 4-3 Over use
*Titans: Even split of both 2-4-5 nickel and 3-3-5 nickel; 4-1-6 dime, no quarter
*multiple trials gave horrible gameplay, horrible QB stats, horrible RB stats, high punt total
*Both QBs (Bridgewater, Mariota) generally at 33% total completions or under

Trial 2 - Vikes 65% Run defense, Titans 65% Run defense
*Vikes: 4-2-5 nickel; both 4-1-6 dime and quarter observed
*Titans: 3-3-5 preferred, small amount of 2-4-5; some 4-1-6 dime, no quarter
*Better QB numbers, but inconsistent gameplay, especially by RBs and by Mariota; RBs not converting on easy third downs or showing acceptable ability/awareness, leading to high punt totals
*Bridgewater: 60% completions; Mariota: 41% completions

Trial 3 - Vikes 50% Pass defense, Titans 50% Pass defense
*Vikes: 4-2-5 nickel; both 4-1-6 dime and quarter
*Titans: 2-4-5 preferred, with some 3-3-5 observed; fascinating that this setting gave me the most 2-4-5 nickel; 4-1-6 was observed
*Fantastic QB numbers, only trial that produced both QBs consistently over 50% completions; RB performance was varied, with one team generally able to control the ball and the tempo of the game much better; punts were very low, just two, which I strive to be able to produce
*Bridgewater: 71%!! Mariota: 55%!

Trial 4 - Vikes 65% Pass defense, Titans 65% Pass defense
*Vikes: 4-2-5 nickel; dime observed, but no quarter; I also noted that I began to see what looked like more 4-3 Under, which is fascinating given the results in Trial 1
*Titans: 3-2-6 dime appeared for the first time; 3-3-5 and quarter were observed, with only a small amount of 2-4-5
*Inconsistent QB performance, but better RB performance for sure; good RBs generally getting 5-7 YPC, much smoother pace/tempo of gameplay than at 65% run defense, punts were okay once again
*Bridgewater: 57%, Mariota: 40%; Mariota has lower AWR, 69, which might be leading to him being more affected by this slider than most QBs; as you see, Bridgewater (AWR 82 or so) was more consistent across a wider range of slider settings

Trial 5 - Vikes 79% Pass defense, Titans 79% Pass defense
*Vikes: 4-2-5; some 4-1-6
*Titans: only 3-3-5 seen, no 2-4-5, only setting that didn't give any 2-4-5; also this time no dime, all quarter
*Substandard QB performance once again, total completions only 33%; Bridgewater was still okay at 55%, Mariota was 18%; RB numbers were still okay, but punt totals were staggering

Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

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moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Sun Jul 10, 2016 4:26 pm

Aside from the better gameplay observed at around 50%, the results also support the idea that Defensive Pass/Run% has a direct influence on what type of substitution package is preferred by the Madden AI:

moonbax wrote:4-2-5 nickel: 2 DTs, 2 DEs

Image

2-4-5 nickel: 2 DTs, 0 DEs

Image



Higher Run defense favors the formations that use 2 DTs!!!


Higher Pass defense = 1 DT (1-5-5, 3-3-5, Quarter)

Higher Run defense = 2 DTs (2-4-5, 4-2-5, Dime)



Regarding why 2-4-5 might show up more at 50%/50% defense, there might be other subpackages that are more preferred over 2-4-5 for stopping either the run or the pass. At 50/50 this preference for stopping the run or the pass theoretically doesn't exist, and it becomes more likely to see 2-4-5 in a wider variety of game situations.

This also corroborates an observation I made with the Redskins at 53% Pass defense: I noted much higher preference for 2-4-5 nickel, as well as 3-2-6 dime over 4-1-6 dime. It appears that the range of values that produce a preference for 2-4-5 nickel and 3-2-6 dime is somewhere around 51-64% Pass defense.

moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:00 pm

Here's more data. All I have to say is f**k this set of values; why were these such bulls**t????? Why is 50% the only setting that hasn't given me s**t gameplay? This is f**king ridiculous.



Trial 1 - 55% Run defense (Vikes and Titans)
*Vikes: just 4-2-5; both 4-1-6 dime and quarter were observed equally
*Titans: 3-2-6 dime was preferred to 4-1-6 on this setting; 3-3-5 and quarter were seen, but for some reason I didn't see 2-4-5 here
*both teams were fumbling the ball all over the goddamn place; both teams with two each! No interceptions, though
*Bridgewater: 54% completions, Mariota: 40%


Trials 2A and 2B - 52% Run defense
*I had to test this setting twice because I couldn't believe what utter s**t gameplay it was giving me, repeatedly, even when I restart mainapp.exe, as I do in between every trial
*Vikes: again just 4-2-5; both 4-1-6 and quarter equally
*Titans: 2-4-5 nickel was given a slight preference here over 3-3-5; 4-1-6 dime was preferred over quarter
*Trials A and B: Bridgewater 27% and 25% (what. the. f**k.); Mariota 40%, 50%
*Both trials staggeringly horrible stats for both teams, in every area, RB, QB, even special teams shanks


Trial 3 - 52% Pass defense
*Inconsistent QB performance, okay RB performance
*Vikes: still just normal nickel, this time all quarter, no dime seen
*Titans: 3-3-5 nickel was preferred to 2-4-5; quarter was used, no dime
*Even though the number of Third Downs was actually quite good, not a single one of them was converted; both teams still got into FG range, but the QB performances were not what they should have been; more issues with special teams and shanks
*Bridgewater: 55%, Mariota: 42%


Trial 4 - 55% Pass defense
*This one was opposite from Trial 1, both QBs had one interception each, but no fumbles
*Vikes: still normal nickel, and only quarter, no dime
*Titans: 3-2-6 dime seen; fairly even split of 3-3-5 and 2-4-5; both 4-1-6 and quarter. Most varied subpackage use I've seen
*Bridgewater: 40% completions, Mariota 50% completions




Isn't that odd that higher Run defense resulted in both teams fumbling more, and higher pass defense resulted in both teams getting intercepted more?

There's definitely some symmetry going on here with the Pass/Run settings; you may be able to see the patterns emerging in use of certain subpackages, but I'm not sure what to make of the patterns emerging in horrible RB, QB, and special teams stats. I also find it utter bulls**t that I can get Bridgewater to USUALLY have good numbers, but Mariota I have to jump through hoops and try every possible setting just to get over 42%. Mariota's goddamn Awareness is TOO LOW. AWR 69 is just not going to give good enough QB performance; I don't even think a backup QB would be as consistently subpar as Mariota is with this setup. AWR 69 is NOT GOOD ENOUGH for Mariota. I've seen the dude throw 11 straight completions before; to get that to happen in Madden I have to bump QBs up to 94-99 AWR! All of this just has now frustrated the s**t out of me.

moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:01 am

Yes! Yes Yes Yes Yesss! I'm finally seeing not just good results with certain settings, but things I have never seen occur before. Things I didn't even think were possible.


Keep in mind these are all 15:00 trials, and some I allowed to continue longer (including one whole game as you'll see). And I didn't do these in this order, I did them in a totally random order. I also do restart mainapp.exe before every trial.


Trial 1A - 51% Run defense / 51% Run defense
*Vikes: both normal 4-1-6 dime and quarter used
*Titans: 2-4-5 nickel was greatly, greatly preferred on this setting, to an extent I have definitely not seen on any other setting; both normal 4-1-6 dime and quarter used
*When I used 55% run (above post) I saw two fumbles each in 15:00; in this trial I saw one fumble each in 15:00
*GREAT special teams performance, gorgeous kicks and punts
*LONG drives, good QB animations, Teddy showed definite consistency across both trials
*Bridgewater: 66% completion rate (6/9)!
*Mariota: too small sample size, but began 1/6; didn't get a bigger sample than this, but I did the same setting in Trial 1B

Trial 1B - 51% Run / 51% Run
*Vikes: same as 1A
*Titans: exactly the same as 1A, 2-4-5 nickel greatly used
*This entire range was giving me regular 5:00-7:00 drives. This trial produced the 6:49 drive seen below (click to view)
Image
*Absolutely on point special teams, once again, almost TOO good (almost)
*I noticed the play clock ticking down to 5 seconds a lot more often
*2 punts, 1 drop after 15:00
*Bridgewater began 3/5 and then continued to be absolutely goddamn brilliant, going 9 of 13 (that's 69%), and finished 30:00 of game time with 61%
*Mariota was 40% after 15:00; he never really improved from this, sadly


Trial 2A - 50% / 50% (Same thing I tested in the original post; I wanted to double check this for consistency)
*Vikes: same as 1A/B, maybe a little more quarter
*Titans: some quarter used, and a small amount of 2-4-5 nickel
*Ball carrier awareness looked really great, actually; this goes for RBs, WRs; however, there were inconsistencies on this setting that I did not see on others
*Mixed special teams performance; beautiful punting, but also a shanked FG and missed FGs on both trials on this setting
*Long drives of 5:00+ also appeared on this setting, but no 6:00+ drives
*Unfortunately, not acceptable completion rates
*Bridgewater 3/10 and Mariota 1/7; I did receive better numbers after a third test, though

Trial 2B - 50% / 50% again
*Vikes: same thing, a little dime and quarter
*Titans: small amount of 2-4-5, small amount of 3-3-5 nickel, both dime and quarter
*Finally am able to see Mariota over a 100.0 passer rating after 15:00
*MUCH better completion rates than 2A
*2 punts
*Bridgewater: 57% completions; Mariota: 50% completions; total was 54%


Trial 3A - 51% Pass defense / 51% Pass defense
*Vikes: 4-1-6 dime was used a decent amount, and a little quarter
*Titans: 3-3-5 preferred on this setting; 3-2-6 dime was used a little bit on this setting as well, with about an even mix of 3-2-6, 4-1-6, and quarter
*Excellent looking "awareness" from RBs once again
*A drive lasted 6:01, second 6:00+ drive obtained in this range of settings
*Long time in between snaps, I noted many snaps coming with the game clock at 7, 6, or 5 seconds
*This trial was producing some drops that shouldn't have happened, but completion rates and the gameplay was still highly acceptable quality
*Special teams was rock solid on this setting in both of these trials; more gorgeous punting seen
*Bridgewater 63%! Mariota: only had 3 passing attempts in this duration, too small

Trial 3B - 51% Pass / 51% Pass
*Vikes: same as 3A
*Titans: same as 3A, 3-3-5 preferred nickel on this setting, good mix of 3-2-6 and 4-1-6 and quarter
*Remarkable diving catching animations seen
*Fantastic RB ability/awareness
*Absolutely stellar QB performances, BEAUTIFUL throws
*Rock solid special teams animations
*0 punts after 15:00
*First time ever seeing 6 consecutive completions from Mariota
Image
*Most amazing combined completion rate I have ever seen:
*After 15:00: Bridgewater 75%, Mariota 77%
Spoiler:
Image

*After 30:00: Bridgewater 63%, Mariota 60%
Spoiler:
Image


After 60:00:
*Total combined completions 34/57 = 60% completions, my highest combined ever in a 60:00 game (and from low AWR QBs!)
*Both QBs end 60:00 of game time with over 100.0 passer ratings, something I have been trying to produce more consistently for many, many months

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Individual Stats: Vikings
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Teddy Bridgewater               15   26  240   57   9.2    5    1    0   65  101.4

Individual Stats: Titans
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Marcus Mariota                  19   31  287   61   9.2    6    1    0   86  102.5

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Weather
Forecast: Fair
Wind: 2 mph
Temp: 73 degrees

Team               Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   OT      FINAL
Vikings            10    7    0    0    0         17
Titans             10   10    0    3    0         23

Game Statistics:                  Vikings     Titans
First Downs                            16         17
Third Down Conversions                  5          9
Third Downs                            14         19
Third Down Percentage               35.7%      47.4%
Fourth Down Conversions                 0          0
Fourth Downs                            1          0
Fourth Down Percentage               0.0%       0.0%
Two Pt Conversions Made                 0          0
Two Pt Conversions Attempted            0          0
Two Pt Conversion Percentage         0.0%       0.0%
Offense Redzone Num                     2          2
Offense Redzone TDs                     1          0
Offense Redzone FGs                     1          2
Offense Redzone Percentage         100.0%     100.0%
Rushing Attempts                       36         38
Rushing Yards                         154        206
Rushing Average                       4.3        5.4
Rushing TDs                             1          1
Passing Yards                         226        261
Passing Completions                    15         19
Passing Attempts                       26         31
Completion Percentage               57.7%      61.3%
Passing Average                       8.7        8.4
Passing TDs                             1          1
Offensive Pass Interceptions            0          0
TOTAL OFFENSE                         380        467
Defensive Pass Interceptions            0          0
Punt Return Yards                       0          0
Kick Return Yards                      93         38
Punts                                   8          6
Punt Avg                             43.4       51.3
Fumbles                                 0          0
Fumbles Lost                            0          0
Penalties                               2          4
Penalty Yds                            16         20
Turnovers                               0          0
TIME OF POSSESSION                  28:03      31:40

Individual Stats: Titans
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Marcus Mariota                  19   31  287   61   9.2    6    1    0   86  102.5

RUSHING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD  FUM
Demarco Murray                  17  125   7.3   71    1    0
Derrick Henry                   11   56   5.0   14    0    0
Antonio Andrews                  3   13   4.3   11    0    0
Marcus Mariota                   7   12   1.7    7    0    0

RECEIVING                      REC  YDS   AVG LONG   TD DROP  YAC
Dorial Green-Beckham             7  103  14.7   32    0    0   21
Demarco Murray                   2   94  47.0   86    1    0   79
Delanie Walker                   4   39   9.7   25    0    1   10
Justin Hunter                    1   17  17.0   17    0    0    3
Kendall Wright                   2   17   8.5   11    0    1   20
Rishard Matthews                 1    9   9.0    9    0    1   -2
Derrick Henry                    1    5   5.0    5    0    0    1
Harry Douglas                    1    3   3.0    3    0    1    0
Craig Stevens                    0    0   0.0    0    0    1    0

KICKING                        FGM  FGA  PCT FGSBLOCKED  XPA  XPM  PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Ryan Succop                      3    4   75          0    2    2  100          0        0          0
Brett Kern                       0    0    0          0    0    0    0          0        6          1

PUNTING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Brett Kern                       6  308  51.3   57      0    0          3

KICK RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG   TD LONG
Perrish Cox                      2   38  19.0    0   26

PUNT RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD
Perrish Cox                      0    0   0.0    0    0

DEFENSE                        TOT LOSS SACK   FF FREC  YDS   TD  INT  RET   AVG DEFLECTIONS SAFETIES CTH ALLOW BIG HITS
Al Woods                         7    1    2    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Avery Williamson                 7    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         1        0
Rashad Johnson                   7    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         1        0
Wesley Woodyard                  5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Jurrell Casey                    4    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         1        0
Jason McCourty                   4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           2        0         1        0
Da'Norris Searcy                 4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Brian Orakpo                     3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Karl Klug                        3    0    2    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Derrick Morgan                   3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0
Brice McCain                     3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           2        0         5        0
Perrish Cox                      3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         4        0
Sean Spence                      2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Deiontrez Mount                  2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
David Bass                       1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Chance Warmack                   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0

BLOCKING                      PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Taylor Lewan                         8             0
Jeremiah Poutasi                     5             1
Delanie Walker                       4             0
Brian Schwenke                       3             2
Dorial Green-Beckham                 3             0
Chance Warmack                       2             0
Kendall Wright                       2             0
Jack Conklin                         2             2
Rishard Matthews                     2             0
Jalston Fowler                       1             0


Individual Stats: Vikings
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Teddy Bridgewater               15   26  240   57   9.2    5    1    0   65  101.4

RUSHING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD  FUM
Adrian Peterson                 19   98   5.1   23    0    0
Jerick McKinnon                 10   26   2.5    8    1    0
Zach Line                        4   25   6.2   15    0    0
Teddy Bridgewater                3    5   1.6    3    0    0

RECEIVING                      REC  YDS   AVG LONG   TD DROP  YAC
Jarius Wright                    5  134  26.7   65    1    1   70
Stefon Diggs                     3   32  10.6   13    0    1    8
Adrian Peterson                  2   28  14.0   21    0    0   23
Cordarrelle Patterson            2   20  10.0   14    0    0    1
MyCole Pruitt                    2   13   6.5   13    0    0    9
Zach Line                        1   13  13.0   13    0    0   10

KICKING                        FGM  FGA  PCT FGSBLOCKED  XPA  XPM  PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Blair Walsh                      1    1  100          0    2    2  100          0        4          2

PUNTING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Jeff Locke                       8  347  43.3   59      0    1          2

KICK RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG   TD LONG
Cordarrelle Patterson            5   93  18.5    0   23

PUNT RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD
Cordarrelle Patterson            0    0   0.0    0    0

DEFENSE                        TOT LOSS SACK   FF FREC  YDS   TD  INT  RET   AVG DEFLECTIONS SAFETIES CTH ALLOW BIG HITS
Linval Joseph                    7    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Eric Kendricks                   7    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         1        0
Sharrif Floyd                    6    0    3    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Terence Newman                   6    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         5        0
Everson Griffen                  5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Chad Greenway                    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Brian Robison                    5    0    2    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Anthony Barr                     4    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Andrew Sendejo                   4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0
Harrison Smith                   3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Xavier Rhodes                    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0
Captain Munnerlyn                2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         1        0
Brandon Watts                    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Danielle Hunter                  1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Trae Waynes                      1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Michael Griffin                  0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0

BLOCKING                      PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Matt Kalil                           8             0
Alex Boone                           6             2
Joe Berger                           4             2
Phil Loadholt                        3             0
Zach Line                            2             0
John Sullivan                        2             1
Danielle Hunter                      1             0
Stefon Diggs                         1             0
MyCole Pruitt                        1             0


Game Log Ends
------------------------------------------------------------

moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:20 am

Summary of what I've seen so far from 51% Run and 51% Pass that have been extraordinary compared to pretty much every other value I've tested so far:

*51% Pass defense and 51% Run defense are the only settings I have found that have resulted in Teddy with a completion rate over 60% in every single trial tested over 15:00, and trials that were allowed to continue to 30:00 also showed the same 60%+ completion rates from Bridgewater.

*This range of three settings was consistently producing "consecutive completion" graphics, for both Bridgewater and Mariota; I did not see this for Mariota outside of this range of settings

*51% Pass and 51% Run are the only settings that have produced 6-minute to 7-minute long drives; the entire range of these three settings was consistently producing drives over 5 minutes.

*51% Run defense is the setting that has favored the most 2-4-5 nickel by far

*51% Pass was the only setting that produced 3-2-6 dime in this range; both normal dime and quarter were used with every setting in this range

moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:47 am

Unfortunately, I am not seeing the same good results when I use one team defensive Run 51% and the other Pass 51%.


Trial 1A - Vikings 51% Pass defense, Titans 51% Run defense
*Vikes: varied subpackage use, little of each nickel dime and quarter
*Titans: varied subpackage use, 2-4-5 and 3-3-5, 3-2-6 and 4-1-6, quarter
*Solid special teams
*varied RB performance
*some bad drops
*inconsistent QB performance; still not seeing Mariota over 42%
*Bridgewater 50% completions, Mariota 42% completions

Trial 1B - Vikings 51% Pass, Titans 51% Run (same)
*Vikes: same varied subpackages, maybe a little bit more quarter, also possible that 3-2-6 appeared here
*Titans: same varied subpackages, higher use of 3-3-5 than I was seeing with both teams at 51% Run defense
*Still good special teams, still inconsistent QB performances
*fewer drops, but punt total staggering
*Bridgewater still right around 50%, Mariota about 44%

Trial 2A - Vikings 51% Run, Titans 51% Pass
*Vikes: definitely some more 3-2-6 appearing when the sliders are mixed
*Titans: same varied subpackages, 2-4-5 and 3-3-5 nickel, both 3-2-6 and 4-1-6 dime, quarter
*Special teams shanks appeared; missed field goals were more common on this setting, but beautiful punts also appeared
*great "awareness" by RBs, though
*Mariota had 3 consecutive completions, but overall very inconsistent as the trial went on
*Bridgewater: only 6 passing attempts (33% complete), Mariota: began game 6/9 (66%), but then continued to diminish to around 44%-50%; very inconsistent "awareness" for QBs
*low drops but punt totals were skyrocketing

Trial 2B - Vikings 51% Run, Titans 51% Pass
*Vikes: same varied subpackages, mix of all nickel, dime and quarter formations
*Titans: same varied subpackages, 2-4-5 nickel and 3-3-5 nickel seen, all dime and quarter
*still some shanks and misses, still some drops, but also still some good looking punts
*Both QBs generally under 50% and continued to get worse and worse as trial continued, down to 33%-42% completion range
*still great RB performance
*punt total started okay but then skyrocketed as completion rates plummeted



So basically, I see what looked more to me like what I was seeing at both teams 50%/50%, shanks and misses, inconsistent QB performance, okay RB performance... etc.

So... having one team 51% Run and 51% Pass is... roughly equivalent to both teams being at 50%/50%?? Or am I just having very "bad luck" today? I really don't understand this damn game.

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ycleped
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby ycleped » Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:13 pm

I wish EA would actually explain things...
// Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil, for You are with me //

ImageImage
ImageImage

moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:34 pm

ycleped wrote:I wish EA would actually explain things...



Here's something I'm noticing might be causing inconsistencies in low AWR QBs.... the weather...

Here are two games on the same setting that got me to Mariota 61% total completions: 51% Pass defense for both Vikes and Titans


Trial 1 - Vikes 51% Pass / Titans 51% Pass (I had best success on this setting, with 60% of all passes being complete [see log above])

*Bridgewater was solid this time once again, finished the first half at 70% completions!!! Finished the game at 56%, so pretty close to the log I obtained above on 51% Pass defense.
Image


*Mariota: was right around 42% the entire game, very very subpar and disappointing
*Three consecutive missed field goals
*Four missed field goals in game total
*Muffed punt return
*still reasonable number of combined punts, 13, made possible by longer 5:00+ drives
*Overall number of plays run: 66 passing attempts, 63 rushing attempts (not including scrambles leading to sacks)
*Log showed 10-15mph winds

Code: Select all

Weather
Forecast: Fair
Wind: 11 mph
Temp: 74 degrees

Team               Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   OT      FINAL
Vikings            10    0    0    0    0         10
Titans              3    0    7    3    0         13

Game Statistics:                  Vikings     Titans
First Downs                            23         10
Third Down Conversions                  9          5
Third Downs                            19         16
Third Down Percentage               47.4%      31.3%
Fourth Down Conversions                 0          0
Fourth Downs                            1          0
Fourth Down Percentage               0.0%       0.0%
Two Pt Conversions Made                 0          0
Two Pt Conversions Attempted            0          0
Two Pt Conversion Percentage         0.0%       0.0%
Offense Redzone Num                     3          2
Offense Redzone TDs                     1          0
Offense Redzone FGs                     1          0
Offense Redzone Percentage          66.7%       0.0%
Rushing Attempts                       29         34
Rushing Yards                         115        116
Rushing Average                       4.0        3.4
Rushing TDs                             1          0
Passing Yards                         237        183
Passing Completions                    25          9
Passing Attempts                       45         21
Completion Percentage               55.6%      42.9%
Passing Average                       5.3        8.7
Passing TDs                             0          1
Offensive Pass Interceptions            0          2
TOTAL OFFENSE                         352        299
Defensive Pass Interceptions            2          0
Punt Return Yards                      15          4
Kick Return Yards                      31         20
Punts                                   6          7
Punt Avg                             45.2       49.0
Fumbles                                 2          0
Fumbles Lost                            2          0
Penalties                               3          3
Penalty Yds                            25         25
Turnovers                               2          2
TIME OF POSSESSION                  35:15      24:33

Individual Stats: Titans
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Marcus Mariota                   9   21  193   42   9.1    5    1    2   79   52.3

RUSHING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD  FUM
Demarco Murray                  22   85   3.8    9    0    0
Marcus Mariota                   4   14   3.5   14    0    0
Antonio Andrews                  2   11   5.5    7    0    0
Jalston Fowler                   1    8   8.0    8    0    0
Derrick Henry                    5   -2  -0.3    2    0    0

RECEIVING                      REC  YDS   AVG LONG   TD DROP  YAC
Dorial Green-Beckham             5  115  23.0   79    1    1   64
Kendall Wright                   2   52  26.0   36    0    1    3
Rishard Matthews                 1   23  23.0   23    0    0   -1
Delanie Walker                   1    3   3.0    3    0    1    0
Jalston Fowler                   0    0   0.0    0    0    1    0

KICKING                        FGM  FGA  PCT FGSBLOCKED  XPA  XPM  PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Ryan Succop                      2    3   66          0    1    1  100          0        0          0
Brett Kern                       0    0    0          0    0    0    0          0        3          1

PUNTING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Brett Kern                       7  343  49.0   67      0    1          3

KICK RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG   TD LONG
Perrish Cox                      1   20  20.0    0   20
Tre McBride                      0    0   0.0    0    0

PUNT RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD
Tre McBride                      1    4   4.0    4    0
Perrish Cox                      0    0   0.0    0    0

DEFENSE                        TOT LOSS SACK   FF FREC  YDS   TD  INT  RET   AVG DEFLECTIONS SAFETIES CTH ALLOW BIG HITS
Avery Williamson                 8    2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0
Brian Orakpo                     8    0    3    1    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         1        0
Derrick Morgan                   7    0    2    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           3        0         1        0
Da'Norris Searcy                 6    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Jurrell Casey                    6    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Rashad Johnson                   6    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         1        0
Brice McCain                     5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         5        0
Wesley Woodyard                  4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         1        0
Al Woods                         3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Jason McCourty                   3    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           3        0         1        0
Karl Klug                        3    1    2    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
David Bass                       2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Antwon Blake                     2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Perrish Cox                      2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         2        0
Demarco Murray                   1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Kendall Wright                   1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Sean Spence                      1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0
Deiontrez Mount                  1    0    0    0    1    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Jalston Fowler                   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Austin Johnson                   0    0    0    0    1   -2    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0

BLOCKING                      PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Delanie Walker                       5             0
Jalston Fowler                       4             0
Craig Stevens                        3             0
Jeremiah Poutasi                     2             0
Taylor Lewan                         2             3
Karl Klug                            1             0
Rishard Matthews                     1             0
Kendall Wright                       1             0
Jack Conklin                         1             0
Brian Schwenke                       0             2


Individual Stats: Vikings
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Teddy Bridgewater               25   45  269   55   5.9   10    0    0   29   73.3

RUSHING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD  FUM
Adrian Peterson                 18   70   3.8   16    0    0
Zach Line                        3   25   8.3   16    0    0
Jerick McKinnon                  6   12   2.0    6    1    0
Teddy Bridgewater                2    8   4.0    9    0    1

RECEIVING                      REC  YDS   AVG LONG   TD DROP  YAC
Jarius Wright                   10   97   9.6   24    0    2   13
Stefon Diggs                     5   69  13.7   29    0    2    6
Kyle Rudolph                     1   29  29.0   29    0    1   14
Cordarrelle Patterson            3   28   9.3   14    0    1    2
Charles Johnson                  3   25   8.3   16    0    0    7
MyCole Pruitt                    2   14   7.0   10    0    0    5
Adrian Peterson                  1    7   7.0    7    0    0    3
Laquon Treadwell                 0    0   0.0    0    0    1    0

KICKING                        FGM  FGA  PCT FGSBLOCKED  XPA  XPM  PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Blair Walsh                      1    4   25          0    1    1  100          0        3          2

PUNTING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Jeff Locke                       6  271  45.1   58      0    1          2

KICK RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG   TD LONG
Cordarrelle Patterson            2   31  15.5    0   17

PUNT RETURNS                   ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD
Cordarrelle Patterson            2   15   7.5   10    0

DEFENSE                        TOT LOSS SACK   FF FREC  YDS   TD  INT  RET   AVG DEFLECTIONS SAFETIES CTH ALLOW BIG HITS
Eric Kendricks                   8    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           1        0         0        0
Andrew Sendejo                   6    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Everson Griffen                  6    1    3    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Anthony Barr                     5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Brian Robison                    4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Sharrif Floyd                    4    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Harrison Smith                   3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Linval Joseph                    3    0    2    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Chad Greenway                    3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Scott Crichton                   1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Brandon Watts                    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Audie Cole                       1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
John Sullivan                    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0
Terence Newman                   1    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    7   7.0           0        0         5        0
Xavier Rhodes                    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    1   -2  -2.0           0        0         1        0
Teddy Bridgewater                0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0.0           0        0         0        0

BLOCKING                      PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Phil Loadholt                        7             1
Matt Kalil                           6             0
John Sullivan                        4             1
Joe Berger                           4             0
Adrian Peterson                      2             0
Zach Line                            2             0
MyCole Pruitt                        2             0
Kyle Rudolph                         1             0
Jerick McKinnon                      0             1
Alex Boone                           0             2


Game Log Ends
------------------------------------------------------------


In other words: Both kickers had shanks and all special teams players generally sucked. Bridgewater was amazing in both trials at this setting, near consistent above 60%. However, Mariota went from being amazing to also being s**t, basically backup-QB completion rates consistently around 42-44%.



Here's another trial that was in 10-15mph winds, this time both QBs got off to slow starts....



Trial 2 - 51% Pass defense / 51% Pass defense (trial only 15:00)

*Bridgewater started 4/9 but with 1TD and a near 100.0 passer rating
*Mariota went 0/7, which I couldn't quite figure out...
*Log showed 10-15mph winds

Code: Select all

Weather
Forecast: Fair
Wind: 12 mph
Temp: 70 degrees


Individual Stats: Titans
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Marcus Mariota                   0    7    0    0   0.0    1    0    1    0    0.0

RUSHING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD  FUM
Demarco Murray                   5   29   5.7   18    0    0
Marcus Mariota                   3   11   3.6    8    0    0

RECEIVING                      REC  YDS   AVG LONG   TD DROP  YAC
Rishard Matthews                 0    0   0.0    0    0    1    0

KICKING                        FGM  FGA  PCT FGSBLOCKED  XPA  XPM  PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Brett Kern                       0    0    0          0    0    0    0          0        1          0

PUNTING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Brett Kern                       3  129  43.0   46      0    1          0

BLOCKING                      PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Taylor Lewan                         2             0
Jalston Fowler                       2             0
Brian Schwenke                       1             1
Delanie Walker                       1             0
Chance Warmack                       0             0


Individual Stats: Vikings
PASSING                        CMP  ATT  YDS  PCT   YPA SACK   TD  INT LONG RATING
Teddy Bridgewater                4    9   39   44   4.3    0    1    0   14   94.1

RUSHING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG   TD  FUM
Adrian Peterson                  8   22   2.7   11    0    0
Jerick McKinnon                  2   13   6.5   14    0    0
Zach Line                        1    7   7.0    7    0    0
Teddy Bridgewater                3    5   1.6    7    0    1

RECEIVING                      REC  YDS   AVG LONG   TD DROP  YAC
Stefon Diggs                     2   26  13.0   14    0    0    7
Cordarrelle Patterson            1   13  13.0   13    1    0    0
Jarius Wright                    0    0   0.0    0    0    1    0
Adrian Peterson                  0    0   0.0    0    0    1    0

KICKING                        FGM  FGA  PCT FGSBLOCKED  XPA  XPM  PCT XPSBLOCKED KICKOFFS TOUCHBACKS
Blair Walsh                      0    0    0          0    1    1  100          0        1          1

PUNTING                        ATT  YDS   AVG LONG BLOCKS IN20 TOUCHBACKS
Jeff Locke                       2   90  45.0   52      0    0          1

BLOCKING                      PANCAKES SACKS ALLOWED
Zach Line                            2             0
Jarius Wright                        1             0
Matt Kalil                           1             0
Matt Asiata                          1             0
John Sullivan                        1             0
Alex Boone                           1             0
Phil Loadholt                        1             0


Game Log Ends
------------------------------------------------------------






Mariota has a 69 AWR rating in roger's roster. This is lower than any other starter, including Winston (76 AWR) and Sanchez (74 AWR). He is right around the same AWR as Nick Foles, and lower than Weeden or Hoyer.

This is an egregious assault on Mariota's reputation. EGREGIOUS! He needs this to be bumped up. I really think he needs to be AT LEAST Tannehill or Luke McCown AWR, 78-80; these guys both have much better completion rates than the backup QBs I mentioned.

moonbax
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby moonbax » Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:26 pm

I don't know anymore. Nothing about this f**king POS makes any sense whatsoever. I bumped Mariota's AWR up from 69 to 79, and now he is consistently worse than he was before.

I have tried both teams again on 51%-50% Pass defense, but with Mariota's new AWR rating, and I've just gotten:

*Mariota with 1/12 on one trial, 31% on the next, and 1/6 on a third
*Bridgewater I've had 53%, then 38%, then 0/4 on the third

So now not only is Mariota consistently worse, but both QBs are now consistently playing like s**t no matter what slider I use now. I can't deal with this bulls**t.

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ycleped
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Re: Data on Defensive Pass/Run Slider and Possible Correlation to Passing/Rushing Stats

Postby ycleped » Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:42 am

moonbax wrote:I don't know anymore. Nothing about this f**king POS makes any sense whatsoever. I bumped Mariota's AWR up from 69 to 79, and now he is consistently worse than he was before.

I have tried both teams again on 51%-50% Pass defense, but with Mariota's new AWR rating, and I've just gotten:

*Mariota with 1/12 on one trial, 31% on the next, and 1/6 on a third
*Bridgewater I've had 53%, then 38%, then 0/4 on the third

So now not only is Mariota consistently worse, but both QBs are now consistently playing like s**t no matter what slider I use now. I can't deal with this bulls**t.

I'm probably going to email EA at somepoint or contact a developer and see what info they can give me on the game. I'll make a thread where we can come up with a bunch of good questions to ask.
// Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil, for You are with me //

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