2016 Coach Pass/Run%, Strategy, Aggression, and RB1&2 Slider Adjustments Discussion Thread

[moonbax]

Now that's some good stuff. For the purposes of Madden I would reasonably expect that using the ratio of snaps for RB1:RB2 will be close enough to the ratio for their carries. However, I think that the number of carries for the 3DRB is not affected by the RB1:RB2 ratio, RB1:RB2 is only for the designated #1 and #2 HB. Perhaps I'm wrong about that though, someone might know. Therefore, perhaps the HB ratio should be 55/45 but with Johnson as the 3DRB in the roster to get those extra carries that will push him to that higher % of carries expected in 2016.

The nickel/dime snap amount is good too, I had to do something similar with the Cards and took the % of snaps featuring their nickelback over the course of two games from 2014-15; I got the same value the Pats used in 2015, 84%!

Pretty much every other team I've found stats for is over 65% nickel/dime. Well over. I think 65% is a reasonable minimum for a team like the Browns as far as nickel/dime snaps.

[moonbax]

I still don't know which of the remaining coaches should be classified as pass-rushing/"Disrupt Passing," and which should be "Contain Passing."

For example, in 2014 Pagano's Colts ranked third in blitz percentage, but it appears that was influenced by injuries or something else and was anomalous. Similarly, I see reports that the Steelers ranked anywhere from top 5 in blitzing one year to 15th in blitzing in another. Blitz percentages seem to be extremely variable by season, with teams adopting new defensive styles/philosophies constantly, and are therefore a bad indicator of coaching philosophy.

One indicator seems to be whether the team plays more Man-to-Man or Zone coverage. For example, I would now say that Rivera is a Disrupt Passing defense, due to their combination of four-man rush and Zone, rather than the "more aggressive" Man coverage. This is why the debate continues regarding Norman and his perceived abilities outside of a system that relies heavily on disrupting the pass instead of good Man coverage.

If anyone has any corrections for the OP based on the Man vs Zone demarcation and which teams use which then I'd love to get some suggestions. I'll try to find out specifically how the amount of Man/Zone changes with aggression. Man-to-Man would most likely indicate higher aggression and philosophy of "containment" a la Carroll and Quinn.

[Littleware]

The problem I am having now is being able to mix up the 4 generic philosophies. I want Detroit to be Vertical Passing/Contain Passing. I want the Rams to be "Establish the Run/Disrupt Passing. Panthers for me "Ball Control/Contain Passing. But every combination I try only gets me Vertical Pass/Disrupt Pass or Establish the Run/Stop the Run or West Coast/Contain Passing and Ball Control/Force the Pass. Do I have to use the DB editor to get the mismatches I want?

Disrupt Passing = Blitzing
Contain Passing = More Coverages/ Man or Zone ( 5,6,7,or 8 DB's )
Force the Pass = 8 man fronts/ possible 46 defense
Shut Down Runs = Base Defense

I have 4 teams in my franchise the have the Vertical Passing/Disrupt Passing. They all beat teams that have "Ball Control/Force the Pass". All 4 winning teams are lower rated OVR and were playing at home week 13 games against division leading teams. Talk about imbalance

[moonbax]

The problem I am having now is being able to mix up the 4 generic philosophies. I want Detroit to be Vertical Passing/Contain Passing. I want the Rams to be "Establish the Run/Disrupt Passing. Panthers for me "Ball Control/Contain Passing. But every combination I try only gets me Vertical Pass/Disrupt Pass or Establish the Run/Stop the Run or West Coast/Contain Passing and Ball Control/Force the Pass. Do I have to use the DB editor to get the mismatches I want?

Oh f***'s sake. You're right, I can only get those specific combinations. Well, this sure made it a lot easier to classify offenses, at least.

If they were "West Coast" acccording to wikipedia (50% of teams), then they become either West Coast/Contain Passing if they pass more, or Ball Control/Force the Pass if they run more (Seahawks, Bills)

If, on the other hand, they are not listed as "West Coast" by wiki (50% of teams), they become either Vertical Passing/Disrupt Passing if they pass more, or Establish Run/Shut Down Runs if they run more (Panthers, Vikings).


That's it, there are no other offensive types in Madden... oh well. But hey, the entire list is now complete for offensive types!




Also, as I tried to explain the last few posts, the Panthers are a good example of why blitzing and blitz percentage is a bad indicator of a "pass rushing" team philosophy. The Panthers ranked 25th in the league in blitz percentage through the first three or so weeks of 2015, according to one source I remember reading. This is because the Panthers generate enough pressure using their front four (Short, Lotulelei, Ealy, and Charles Johnson) that they don't need to blitz! They are still a pass-rushing team but not a "blitzing" team. Instead, we should look at the type of coverage the defense uses as it pertains to defensive aggression, which is as of yet unsolved.

[moonbax]

I have tried to use this idea of nickel/dime snaps generally not decreasing since 2011. Some updates I've tried my best to work around the lack of later data (as of yet) for:


*In 2011 the Dolphins and the Raiders used base defense just 30% and 37% of the time, respectively. I decided that under Gase and Del Rio the base percentage most likely wouldn't increase; If anything base defense would be lower, but probably not significantly lower. Still could use better data.

*In 2011 the Jets under Rex Ryan used the same % of base defense as the Jets under Bowles in 2015, that's kind of interesting. I decided both Bowles and Ryan were 37% base.

*In 2011 Pagano was DC of the Ravens, when they used 42% base. I have added notations for "HC", "OC", and "DC" to make the list clearer why some coach data from previous years might apply.

*Numbers in need of confirmation/updating:

John Harbaugh Def. Run 42% Pass 58% (2011)
Reid Defense Run 41% Pass 59% (2011 Eagles), probably going to be very similar to Pederson's 2016 Eagles.

*I felt that ATL had changed their personnel and defensive packages too greatly for 2011 base percentages to be useful, same as DET, LA, WAS, TEN, SD, TB, and JAX. Each of these teams had around 44-56% base in 2011.

*...However, in 2011 JAX used 45% base defense while Bradley was using 56% base as defensive coordinator of the Seahawks that year. The base defense percent for the Jags from 2012-2015 under Bradley most likely didn't increase significantly, and if anything would have decreased significantly since then, given how much JAX invests in their corners and particularly nickels. Would love to get input on how much that team (and the other teams I mentioned) use nickel/dime. Might have to look at the % of snaps their nickel was in over the course of a few games.

EDIT:

"Last week, House, who had 71 snaps and Aaron Colvin, who played all 72 defensive snaps, were the starting corners and Gratz, who played 42 snaps, was the nickel back. "

That's useful, giving a 42% base (run) and 58% nickel/dime, right around what I said for the Jags, but I won't put it up unless I know the number is going to be more or less consistent over the course of a season.

[Littleware]

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/7/9/5884 ... ms-in-2014

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... g-changes/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659 ... se-offense

I haven't been able to locate any info with last season philosophies so far!

[moonbax]

Even though those links might be a little dated there are pieces that can be put together. Here's what I'm gathering from those links:


First link calls 2013 Chargers "West Coast" offense, also "similar to Titans." In 2013 Ken Whisenhunt was the OC of the Chargers. Turns out McCoy ran a West Coast offense with Fox's Broncos in 2011-2012. I'm not sure why the Wiki entry for West Coast doesn't have the Chargers mentioned, but it seems as though Whisenhunt did it in 2013, and Whisenhunt is the common link between the Chargers and Titans offenses during this time. See third article where McCoy is specifically mentioned as West Coast as well. Given Mularkey's background this would make Titans WC as well.

Third link is great, confirms a ton of designations that I saw on Wiki, even mentioning "ball controlling" or "run-first"/Establish Run (Panthers) types. Here's more info from that link:

*Specifically names Saints as "West Coast offense or the Gulf Coast offense", and another article confirms this: "As a disciple of Bill Walsh's West Coast offense, Sean Payton worked his way up the NFL coaching ranks alongside the likes of Jon Gruden and Bill Callahan." Well, there it is, Payton's a West Coaster.

*Again, 2013 Chargers a "West Coast" hybrid, specifically mentions McCoy in this article. I'll change him to West Coast.

*Bears and Dolphins used West Coast these years, but personnel has greatly changed. However, Fox used West Coast in 11-12 in Denver, and with Fox's influence both in MIA and CHI now perhaps these are still West Coast offenses. Anyone know?

EDIT: found a good article from past November explaining why the Vikings system under Zimmer/Turner is not West Coast, despite Bridgewater apparently being well-suited to it. The phrase "establish the run" is also used; "Establish Run" is the same aggression as non-West Coast in Madden, but for teams that run 50%+ of the time. http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/11/23 ... the-future.

[moonbax]

Couple of great references here:

Found a great article from early 2014-15 season about each system; this is the most up to date one I've found so far. Keep in mind the teams with changed personnel since then like the Vikings (see above link on them). http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014/8/1 ... 1461792714.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tats/2015/. This will show you the percent of defensive snaps that the nickel cornerbacks for each team made last season. Great reference, but it will only be useful if the nickel corner played in all of the games. Look for the guys with 16 in the Games column. Although, of course, they won't necessarily be in every quarter either. Still, this does give a great idea of the minimum number of nickel/dime snaps each team played last season. For example, the Bills' Robey played all 16 games at nickel, and was in 61.6% of the Bills' defensive snaps. This is pretty close to my estimation of 63% based on Ryan's (and Bowles') numbers with the Jets. Good reference there.

Also, here's an article describing the Texans' move away from the Kubiak West Coast offense in 2015. http://www.battleredblog.com/2015/6/25/ ... ks-formula. But with a QB coming directly from that system who knows what'll happen in 2016.


EDIT

*Also, updated Hue Jackson to 67% nickel/dime based on DrBrownsFan's extrapolated snap percentage for nickel corner K'Wuan Williams from ProFootballFocus stats (first page)

*Updated Gus Bradley to 58% nickel based on article from official Jags site indicating this snap percentage for Gratz is representative of snap percentage for JAX nickels.

[moonbax]

Just now getting to the RB ratios, excellent reference for all 2015 offense player snap percentages here: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tats/2015/. OP has been updated with a bunch of stats and some approximations from 2015.

I started with the duos of backs that both played 16 games together, because if one back played more games it will obviously affect the number of snaps the second receives.

*Riddick to Abdullah (DET) 470:355 = RB1 57%, RB2 43%

*Johnson to Crowell (CLE) 559:474 = RB1 54%, RB2 46%

*Vereen to Jennings (NYG) 426:423 = RB1 50%, RB2 50%

*Bernard to Hill (CIN) 582:458 = RB1 56%, RB2 44%

*Martin to Sims (TB) 622:459 = RB1 58%, RB2 42%

*Peterson to McKinnon (MIN) 665:160 = RB1 81% RB2 19%...

...etc. etc. continuing in this way. I then approximated more coach values based on duos that played in numbers of games within one, sometimes two (three only in ATL's case), of each other last year: Lacy(15)/Starks(16), Anderson(15)/Hillman(16), Gurley(13)/Mason(13), Ingram (12)/Spiller(13), Blount (12)/White(14), Freeman(15)/Coleman(12), etc.. I tried to stick with the duos that had the closest number of games (and whose stats weren't greatly impacted by a third RB's status).

*For Fox I used the Forte to Langford ratio, assuming that Langford will replace snaps from Forte and Rodgers or Carey will move into Langford's spot. Similarly, I used Ivory and Powell from last year to approximate this year's Forte to Powell. Turns out both Forte and Ivory had about 60% of the RB1+RB2 snaps for their respective teams last year. It isn't as clear what % Ivory will get under Bradley this year, competing with Yeldon. Somewhere from 51%-60% is likely.

*For Gruden I used the Jones to Thompson ratio from last year, opting to exclude Alfred Morris's stats, who is now with the Cowboys. The ratio of Morris to Jones was 59/41, and 55/45 with Jones to Thompson in 2015, so either way it was about the same.

*This year's stats could change considerably for HOU, MIA, IND, TEN, JAX as mentioned above, DAL, SF, and others with new RB situations. Not sure how to go about projecting, for example, Lamar Miller or Demarco Murray's snap counts this year.

EDIT

Hearing that with Derrick Henry the Titans RB situation isn't likely to change very much, Murray won't get significantly more carries than what Andrews received last year, perhaps even less. Andrews (14 games) to McCluster (11 games) was about 58/42 last year. If you extrapolate them both to 16 games it becomes more like 56/44.



EDIT

*Regarding injuries, Rawls and Jackson started many more games than Lynch. If you assume that Lynch's snaps were distributed among Rawls/Jackson proportionately, this gives 53%/47% for Rawls/Jackson.

Also, some coaches I decided to go with 2014 RB snap counts for, but ONLY if their investment in RB1 and RB2 in 2014 is relative to what they've invested in the two positions in 2015. For example, I can't use 2014 data for Tomlin because both Bell and Williams were not on the roster, and of course in 2015 they were not in comparable snap counts either. Here is some usable 2014 data:

*Robinson-Gerhart (Bradley) was RB1 56% RB2 44% (2014).

*Forsett's (Harbaugh) numbers in 2014 with a similar RB situation now makes them usable: RB1 82% RB2 18%.

*Pagano went with RB1 54% RB2 46% for Richardson-Bradshaw (2014). They now have Gore-Turbin.

*Reid went with RB1 Charles 68% with Davis at RB2. Very similar situation to West to Ware's 70/30 split in 2015. I've gone with the 2014 figures and 68% for Charles at RB1.

*HOU went with Foster-Blue 65/35 in 2014, I felt that would comparable to Miller-Blue.



Also... noticing that having backs with 90/10 splits for RB1+RB2 snaps might be a little unrealistic in today's NFL; probably not likely to be on the field that often compared to the next highest back. Most I'm seeing so far is for Garrett in 2014 (85%, Murray) and 2015 (83%, McFadden).

[Littleware]

I changed a few of them on my end. I want them to utilize the personnel they currently have.

Rex Ryan - Establish run/ shut down run
Sean Payton - Vertical Passing /disrupt Pass
Chuck Pagano - Ball Control / Force the Pass
Marvin Lewis - Establish Run/ shut down run
Gary Kubiak - Vertical Passing/disrupt Pass
Chip Kelly - Ball Control/ Force the Pass
John Harbough - Ball Control/ Force the Pass

I found these on the NFL Head Coach 09 (the game uses the Madden 07 game engine)

Philosophies

Establish the Run = Focus more on traditional system that uses run to setup the pass
West Coast = Pass First, using quick timing routes
Ball Control = Pass to setup the Run, then run to setup playaction
Vertical Passing = Utilize Speed to stretch a defense downfield
Spread Philosophy = Focus on creating holes in a defense by flooding it with receivers. 3, 4, or 5 WR sets

Disrupt the Pass = Blitz schemes 3-4, 4-3 (Zone Blitz covering pass lanes), or 4-6*. Make the QB get rid of the ball early to cause errant passes or possible turnover.
Force the Pass = Defense feel their DB's can match up with the offensive Wr's. 8 man fronts to take away the run
Contain the Pass = Nickel, Dime based defense plays coverages shadowing strong Wr's.

3-4 = Emphasize the outside linebacker blitz
4-3 = Relies on strong defensive line and tenacious middle linebacker
*46 = Focus on Blitz by overloading the offensive line.
Cover 2 = Emphasize Zone Coverage. Due to weaker CB's, the two safeties have deep half responsibility making sure no Wr's get behind them.