LOBBS roster ratings system

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lionsfan
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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby lionsfan » Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:01 pm

Do you have an excel sheet with the formulas in it? because I'm trying to make one, I got speed and strength to work but for Agility, Acceleration and Jump I'm getting really off numbers, like the faster the 40 time the slower the acceleration, like ill get a 98 speed and a 63 acceleration. so if you have an excel sheet with these formulas would you mind uploading it? thanks!

Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

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ianjones
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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby ianjones » Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:45 am

i am highly interested in this and impressed by it. i made a few incarnations of an excel sheets that was designed to "turn football cards into madden players" but it didnt have a way of taking into account 40 times. im specifically impressed by the agility formula, which accounts for a player's center of gravity based on height. i really would like to see you finalize this effort, but id like to see you tone down the ratings a bit, even understanding that the ratings youve posted will be further modified by statistics and formulas that have not been revealed yet. i dont know what these are going to tend to do to the ability scores in the end, but just as entertainment, allow me to make my case.

1: there should be a good segregation between the abilities of the different positions. only the fastest DT should be as fast as the slowest LB, and only the fastest LBs should be as fast as the slowest CBs. a few tenths of a difference in 40 scores could provide more separation in ability scores.

2: extraordinary should be more than slightly above ordinary. if all CBs average above 90 in speed, acc, and agi; then a CB with 99 in those categories only barely outperforms the average CB.

3: gameplay. if all your LBs end up averaging 80s in spd, acc, and agi, outside running plays are going to be near useless, end arounds will never work, screen plays will almost always result in negative yardage, check down receivers are going to be forever tightly covered, interceptions across midfield will be everywhere, LBs will run pick-6's in at least half of the games in a week, and a rb "breaking into the secondary" will be a moot point, since LBs will be swarming to him regardless of his position on the field. also, it seems that the cpu AI tends to blitz its slower linebackers, while consistently reserving any LBs with 80+ spd for coverage duties. if all of your CBs average above 90 in spd, str, and agi, then a WR with 99s in these categories will only be able to receive worthwhile separation from defending CBs when the defenders awareness fails him (such as in the case of play actions), and if all defending CBs are able to stick to WRs in man to man coverage, the cpu will usually only relegate itself to zone coverage in a few situations, which has a high impact on the running game when the cpu of every team doesnt feel the need to choose between run defense and zone pass protection. (the zone defensive scheme was actually invented by john madden in response to a receiver that was so much faster than the rest of the league that he couldnt be covered man to man....forget the receiver's name tho.)

4: statistics. an LB with 80s in spd, str, and agi AND with above an 85 in tackling will often record over 200 tackles per season. he just gets to the ball carrier all the time and his consistent tackling ability makes a high percentage of those track-downs successful.

5: OVR rating. again, an OVR rating of 90+ should be a very special thing, reserved for on-field heroes and players who consistently make the pro-bowl year after year. the average player at any position should be around a 75, and only super bowl caliber teams should have all of their starters averaging above 80. lets say you have an exemplary team that should end a season with a 13-3, 14-2, or 15-1 record. there is no way to accurately and consistently represent this if the average player in the league is 83-85.

6: player progression and age. as mentioned before, age is debilitating in madden 08. sometime after 30, player begin becoming encumbered by decreasing str, spd, agi, acc, sta, inj, and tgh. in fact, barring training camp sessions, str, spd, agi, and acc are very static abilities, starting at their peaks and ending lower, while the rest of the abilities (especially stamina and awareness) are consistently raised throughout player progression and only lowered by extremely poor performance or lengthy sidelining. throw power and kick power are half and half anomalies that dont always start at their peaks like physical abilities, but arent as dynamic as the rest of the skillset abilities. so, for instance, with the LBs again, having them average 80s in spd, agi, and acc, you can only affect their OVR ratings significantly by lowering their AWR and TAK ratings, which means that even though an LB may have a unspectacular OVR rating, every LB still has huge potential, being that regardless of their AWR and TAK, they will still get to the ball carrier enough to give them a large window of opportunity to eventually become pro-bowlers or near pro-bowler caliber. the only way to stop them from beasting in progression would be to bench them.

7: player tendencies. physical ability scores are highly relevant to almost all player tendencies. for a DL to be "pass rushing", he needs to meet certain criteria. ie his speed and agi need to be >69, his str and tak needs to be <85. for him to be "run stopping" his spd and agi need to be <66 and his str and tak need to be >85. this isnt exact but its pretty close. ACC is the physical ability you can get away with the most leeway, as it predominantly affects only WRs, RBs, and CBs player tendencies. LBs averaging 80s in spd and agi will produce lots of coverage LBs, unless their tak is in the 90s, in which case it will produce a balanced LB. having CBs averaging spd and agi >90 will produce lots of coverage CBs, unless their tak is >~69 or their str is >~55, in which case it will produce a balanced CB, but hard hitting CBs will be a player tendency that only encompasses aging CBs who have deteriorated below 90 in spd and agi. again, these player tendencies will have a high impact on the defensive schemes used by the cpu.

8: player roles. not only are the position-specific player roles affected largely by the same things that affect player tendencies, but the general player roles are also affected by upwardly-skewed physical abilities. for instance, the player role "fan favorite" dictates that a player's OVR be 90+ and he have been on that team for 5+yrs. by increasing the physical abilities, you increase the player's OVR rating and/or his potential to meet this criteria, making this role available to a lot of undeserving players. the "project player" role dictates that a player have high physical ability scores, but still suffering from a low OVR rating (this role is stripped when the player's OVR rating is >85.) i fear that you may end up with a lot of project players if the physical abilities are not reduced a bit.

9: player salaries. players with high physical attributes and/or high OVR ratings want mad loot. a non-conference champion team cant hope to financially hold their starting lineup if all their starters are 80+ OVR, which means that the super bowl teams will begin sucking up all the players that other teams couldnt afford to keep.

finally, here is an issue that my own dumbness produced and is worth cautioning against. when combining results from a season performance and a career performance, be very careful not to weight the career performance very heavily. it "flatlines" the players, so to speak, and creates less dynamic league results.

now, i realize that i havent received a complete iteration of the generative formulas here, and that complete iteration may well render nearly all of my points moot, but they are still good points to keep in mind for any roster creators out there.

ok, and now i have a stupid question. what is BMI? also....when you finish your formulas, can we have an excel sheet that utilizes them?

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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby PML17 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:15 am

Good write up ianjones! I think i'm going to use the SPD formula you wrote about (Fastest DT = Slowest LB, etc.) for my PS2/PSP/PC roster I have been maintaining.
BTW BMI = Body Mass Index.
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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby ianjones » Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:48 pm

oh gotcha! thanks man!

yeah, if you are running '08, then i think you will find that sticking loosely to those guidelines will lessen the need to decrease the defensive awareness ai slider on the upper skill levels. if youve ever played with a roster that averages LB speeds in the 80s and CB speeds above 90, you will also know what im talking about when i say that the return game is AWFUL! not only will the reduced speeds keep ppl from zooming down the field too fast, but the more you fool with the defense awareness sliders the more it screws up the return game. especially the punt return game, because whatever team the camera is behind is the team that is considered the "offense" as far as the AI goes. so, if you have to break the defensive awareness slider down to 30 to make the gameplay fair and interesting, then your return team receives the same awareness decrease until the returner actually touches the ball.

if you want a LB to be a good blitzer, and you want the cpu to actually use him to blitz, then dont give him high speed and agility. give him normal speed and agility and pump up his acceleration. the same goes with RBs. unless you want the RB to be a great singleback formation runner, like barry sanders, then dont give him 90s in speed. give him average speed and pump up his acceleration. he wont outrun his blocking fullback, and once the blocks are secured, he has the push to turn upfield and gain some good yardage.

i wish i could tell you that all this is going to help with the INT issue of the higher skill levels, but its not. this is mostly a QB checkdown problem. on pretty much all skill levels, the QBs would rather take a shot at a double covered WR 15 yds down the field than hit the wide open RB in the flat. which, if you have the INT sliders down, is somewhat manageable, but as soon as the defense drops back in zone coverage, that bet is off.

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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby ianjones » Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:51 pm

oh btw, LOBBS...a height of 6'4" is actually 76", not 74" ....so all of the height portions of your equations should actually read (height-70), not (height-68) in order to begin your equations with a baseline of 1 if the player is on the lowest end of your 6" height differential spectrum.

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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby PML17 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:02 pm

Going to try out your ideas about punt return at some point this week. I can pull off a KR for a TD if I have a good returner, but I'm lucky if I get 5 yards on a PR.

So, with the wonderful option in some roster editors to globally edit ratings, do have a guide to use(I.E. all DT SPD subtract 10, ect)? I would like to try out your ideas and finally get a real football sim! :D
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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby ianjones » Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:37 pm

hmmm. im not sure what your roster looks like, so i couldnt give you a hard line answer. if all of your LBs (or all of your starting LBs) have spd, acc, and agi in their 80s, and the blitzers with acc in their 90s, then emphatically yes. pull everyone down 10. if you just simply have too many LBs in their 80s and some are even over 85, but a good portion is still in their 70s, then just pull the whole thing down 5. DEs and LBs can have pretty similar stats and are actually often interchanged on the field when a NFL team switches base defensive schemes. although run stopping DEs with higher 60s help keep them from over-pursuing ball carriers sometimes. same with DTs. if you find they are all in their 70s, knock em down 10. if only a handful are in their 70s, but too many, just do 5. a monster DT with spd and agi in his 40s is still cool. most of his potential relies on STR, AWR, and TAK. id just knock CBs down 5 at first and see where that gets you, and if you need to, knock it down a little more, but CBs and WRs are deserved extremists in spd, agi, and acc so you still want to go back in and pump up your notable speedsters to their original levels. also, maybe just knock down their SPD and then do that, because it only takes one of those 3 attributes to change every WR and CB from speedsters to "balanced".

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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby ianjones » Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:20 pm

LOBBS, if i changed your 40 time formula to (-(((40 time-4.25)/.85)*50))+100, but then we didnt modify physical abilities with statistics, but rather only with age, would that work out ok? there is probably plenty of debate to go around on the subject, doesnt modifying physical stats based on anything but physical stature and performance feel a bit archaic? like in tecmo bowl when there were only a few stats for every player, so the better performing players were simply given higher speeds and accelerations in order to make them better in-game. its ok if a guy isnt incredibly fast or agile. with good skillset abilities, he can still rack up tons of yards, plenty of catches, and burn plenty of disillusioned defenders for 50+ yard touchdowns. we can still use things like catches per game, yards per carry, yards after catch avg, etc to provide for things like AWR, CTH, BTK, etc.


im interested to hear thoughts on this

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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby ianjones » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:10 pm

whew ok. ive never read equations in this manner before so this was hard to even look at, at first. everyone has a different way they like to rate their rosters, and these equations are pretty well-founded, so let me explain a little bit about whats going on with these equations in english, so that anyone who has just as hard of a time understanding as i did can make intelligible sense of them enough to plug them into their own spreadsheets and tweak them to how they want them.

40-time: Established a range of 4.25-5.75. This encompasses the majority of all 40 times run at the combine or pro days. To convert to a Madden score SPD I take the (-(((40 time-4.25)/1.5)*50))+100.

Height: After averaging several Madden rosters and NFL depth charts I found the average NFL player to be 6'4" or 74" tall. I established a range of 6 inches on either side of that (68-74").

Weight: Again after looking through rosters and depth charts I found an average of a little over 250 lbs and established a range of 75 lbs on either side.

BMI: Calculated BMI for the previously mentioned rosters and found a suitable range of 25-41

To establish a strength rating I take (((((height-68)/12)*40)+60)+((((weight-180)/150)*40)+60)+((((BMI-25)/16)*40)+60))/3
Agility (((((((-(((height -68)/12)*40))+100)*2)+(((-(((weight -180)/150)*40))+100)*2)+(((-(((BMI -25)/16)*40))+100)*1))/5)*3) +40 time score)/4
Acceleration (((((((-(((height-68)/12)*40))+100)*1)+(((-(((weight-180)/150)*40))+100)*3)+(((-(((BMI-25)/16)*40))+100)*2))/6)*3)+40 time score)/4
Jump (((((((-(((height-68)/12)*40))+100)*1)+(((-(((weight-180)/150)*40))+100)*2)+(((-(((BMI-25)/16)*40))+100)*3))/6)*3)+40 time score)/4


ok...the speed is pretty self-explanatory. the assumption is that the top speed will be 4.25 and the slowest will be 5.75. so the equation takes the 40 time and subtracts the fastest time from it, then it divides by the difference of the fastest and slowest assumed times. what this does, essentially, is give you a number thats between 0 and 1, which could also be thought of as between 0 and 100. so, because the reamainder of the enclosed equation is multiplication or division after you subtract the 4.25 from the 40 time, if the player has the fastest 40time, he is going to register o all the way up until you add it to 100, making his final outcome 100; and if the player is the slowest, 5.75 - 4.25 is going to be 1.5, which equals 1 when you divide it by 1.5. unless the player ran a 4.25, whatever number you get here is going to be a negative (because of the minus sign at the beginning of the equation, so when you take the negative number and add it to 100 at the end, its basically the same as subtracting whatever the amount was from 100, giving you a score between 100 (4.25 - 4.25 = 0; 0/1.5 = 0; 0*50 = 0; -0+100= 100) and 50 (5.75-4.25= 1.5; 1.5/1.5 = 1; 1*50=50; -50+100 = 50). all the other equations work exactly the same except LOBBS is trying to get a number between 60 and 100 instead of 50 and 100.

i changed it like this: =(-(((E2-4.25)/.85)*50))+100 ...which brings the avg speed down a bit, making a fast LB who runs a 4.6 an 80, a low/mid speed LB who runs a 4.7 a 74. 4.25 still equals a 100, but if somebody runs a 5.75, he is going to be in his 30s. thats ok with me. a guy who runs a 5.75 is a crony anyway, and prolly a benching OL, whose speeds can get down into the low 40s. (E2 is the place in my spreadsheet where i punch in the 40 time. putting the "=" in front of the entire equation tells the spreadsheet to show the result of the equation instead of the equation itself.)

strength is the same, but without the negative numbering for some reason. height, weight, and BMI are calculated by player score - lowest assumed / the difference between highest and lowest assumed, which gives a value between 0 and 1, multiply it by 40 because you are going to add that to 60, giving you a score between 60 and 100. then all 3 of those scores are divided by 3 - this is just giving you an average of the three scores put together and that average is the final score.

i changed it like this: =(((((B2-68)/12)*50)+50)+(((((C2-160)/180)*50)+50)*2)+((((D2-25)/16)*50)+50))/4 ...68 = 5'8", which i like for a low end height. the assumed top height is 6'10" or 80", which makes 6'2" my average height instead of 6'4". there is a 12" difference between 68 and 80, so thats what i divide by. however, not only do i want the score to come out a little lower by averaging down to 6'2", but i also want the low end score to be 50, not 60, so i multiply by 50 instead of 40, then add it to 50, not 60.

in the weight, i changed the low end to 160, and the top end to 340, with a difference of 180 in between. again, i wanted a low end score of 50, not 60, so i changed the multiplier to 50 and added it to 50, giving me a score between 50 and 100, and more importantly, giving me an average of 75. notice i added the *2 in at the end of weight and put an extra opening bracket at the beginning of the weight formula and in between the 50 and the *2. this is important because it lets the formula know to get the sum of X+50 and multiply that by 2, not just throw *2 into the X+50 equation. i did this to give the weight score more "weight". at the end of the whole formula i changed /3 to /4 so that what this basically does is it averages together a height score, 2 weight scores, and a BMI score to get the final result instead of just one of each, making the weight score count twice toward the average.

the only thing i did to the BMI score was change it to a 50-100 number instead of a 60-100 number. since the BMI score is used over and over, instead of writing it out each time, i just made a square (D2) that calculates the BMI automatically so it can be referenced by the other equations. the equation for BMI is written out like this: =(C2/(B2*B2))*703, which is weight / the result of height * height, and then multiplying that result by 703.

ok, now remember how i "weighted" my weight score, giving it a 2:1, or 200% weight? well, all the rest of the formulas are the same as the strength formula, except that height, weight, and BMI are all gathered into a group and given different weights inside that group. for instance, in the agility formula, height has a weight of 2, weight score has a weight of 2, and BMI score has a weight of 1. then before LOBBS closes out that part of the equation, he divides by 5. LOBBS got that number by adding 2+2+1, so he is creating an average of the weighted scores. so now, basically you get one number that represents the average of all the weighted numbers. lets say its 86. now he is going to spread that number back out into 3 numbers with the *3....or you could say that he is giving the averaged number a weight of 3. then he is going to add those numbers to the speed score and average it out again with the /4. so, at the end, it will be like 86+86+86+speed score and then divide the result by 4 (since there are 4 numbers), giving you the average of those 4 numbers, which isnt going to stray far from 86 in this example.

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Re: LOBBS roster ratings system

Postby DrBrownsFan » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:41 pm

Fantastic work with the explanation and the edits, Ian! I'm super impressed with what you've been able to do on this forum so far, I look forward to seeing moreof your insight.
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